South 32 revised Q2 ‘2026 CIF MJP Premium offer is US$353/mt.

[Macro Pressures Combined With High Inventory, SHFE Aluminum Remained Under Pressure at Elevated Levels in the Short Term] Continued destocking in LME inventory provided bottom support for LME aluminum, but amid tightening fund liquidity and profit-taking by bulls, upward momentum was insufficient, and the backwardation structure weakened somewhat. In China, social inventory rose to a high for the same period in nearly five years, and the inventory buildup cycle had not ended. High inventory and weak spot fundamentals jointly weighed on upward momentum. The divergence between domestic and overseas drivers continued, the SHFE/LME price ratio kept weakening, and SHFE aluminum fell below the key threshold of 25,000 yuan/mt, remaining mainly under pressure at elevated levels in the short term.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Overnight Aluminum Futures Closed Lower, Spot Cargo Under Short-Term Pressure] On Wednesday, the ADC12 market generally showed a downward trend, with mainstream producers broadly lowering quotes by 100 yuan/mt. This price adjustment was mainly driven by the pullback in aluminum prices, which weakened cost support. Enterprises accordingly adjusted their quotes in line with market changes, but the overall magnitude of the adjustment remained relatively restrained, indicating a rather cautious market sentiment.

Rusal's financial report showed that, affected by its capacity optimization plan, full-year 2025 primary aluminum production fell 1.9% YoY to 3.918 million mt (2024: 3.992 million mt). Alumina production, meanwhile, rose 6.7% YoY to 6.858 million mt. In addition, benefiting from the Guinea expansion project and increased equity interests in refineries in China and India, bauxite production increased 16.2% YoY to 18.453 million mt.