Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,911/mt. During the 9:00–12:00 session, LME lead fluctuated rangebound within $1,906–1,915/mt, overall holding up well and touching a high of $1,915.5/mt. After 12:00, LME lead shifted into a unilateral downtrend, plunging to a low of $1,872.5/mt. In the night session, LME lead bottomed out and rebounded, fluctuating and repairing to the $1,895–1,898/mt range near the close, and finally closed at $1,897/mt, down $16/mt, or 0.84%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at a low of 16,300 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead fluctuated upward and touched a high of 16,480 yuan/mt, after which SHFE lead dropped back slightly and fluctuated rangebound within 16,395–16,460 yuan/mt. It finally closed at 16,435 yuan/mt, posting a small bullish candlestick, up 20 yuan/mt, or 0.12%.
On the macro front:
1. The market began betting that the US Fed will raise interest rates. 2. Trump: He was completely unaware of Israel's attack on Iran's South Pars natural gas field. 3. US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Sanctions on Iran's seaborne oil may be lifted in the coming days, and Iranian oil will be used to push for lower prices. 4. Iran: Retaliatory actions over attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure have not yet ended. 5. Joint statement by six countries: They are prepared to take measures to safeguard security in the Strait of Hormuz. 6. The US defense secretary confirmed that he has requested White House approval for a $200 billion appropriation application. 7. Ministry of Finance: In January-February 2026, securities transaction stamp tax reached 4.99 billion yuan, up 1.1 times YoY. 8. The central bank: It will firmly maintain the stable operation of financial markets including equities, bonds, and foreign exchange. 9. Chinese airlines collectively raised fuel surcharges, with the maximum doubling.
Spot fundamentals:
SHFE lead reversed and pulled back. Suppliers were only moderately willing to make shipments, with few spot order quotations. Meanwhile, quotations for cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters remained stable, with mainstream producing areas quoted at premiums of 0–80 yuan/mt ex-works against the SMM #1 lead average price. Secondary lead smelters shipped in line with the market, but spot order quotations were limited. Some smelters held prices firm on shipments, with secondary refined lead quoted around parity with the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. In addition, downstream enterprises mainly made just-in-time procurement. As it was approaching late month, some enterprises gradually picked up goods under current-month long-term contracts, and spot market transactions were mediocre.
Inventory: As of March 19, LME lead inventory decreased by 125 mt, or 0.04%, to 284,250 mt; SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions decreased slightly.
Today's Lead Price Forecast:
Yesterday, SHFE lead pulled back. Primary lead suppliers were only moderately willing to make shipments, and smelter quotations remained stable. Secondary lead smelters, constrained by costs and profits, held prices firm on shipments, and overall transactions were poor. Downstream battery plants maintained full production, mainly purchasing for just-in-time needs and long-term contracts, while spot order transactions were mediocre. SMM expects lead prices to remain in the doldrums with fluctuations in the short term.
![LME Lead Plunged Overnight and Closed Lower, SHFE Lead Consolidated at Lows [SMM Lead Morning Commentary]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/ojSqv20251217171720.jpeg)
![Dragged Down by Broad Losses in Base Metals, Lead Prices Closed Lower Intraday [Lead Futures Brief Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/rDPju20251217171722.jpg)
