Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,905/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead consolidated around the daily average line. Entering the European session, LME lead dipped slightly to $1,883/mt, then fluctuated upward. Around midnight, after moving sideways, LME lead futures were dominated by bulls, with the center gradually moving higher to a peak of $1,926/mt, and finally closed at $1,925/mt, up $22/mt, or 1.16%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened higher with a gap at 16,450 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices plunged rapidly, hitting a low of 16,320 yuan/mt before a slight correction. Thereafter, bulls and bears competed, and SHFE lead prices saw wide swings within the 16,355-16,405 yuan/mt range. At the end of the night session, SHFE lead prices fluctuated upward, but due to strong bearish momentum, turned to fluctuate downward and closed at the low of 16,405 yuan/mt. It posted a long upper-shadow bearish candle, up 90 yuan/mt, or 0.55%.
On the macro front:
1. Trump: Once the Iran war ends, oil prices will fall rapidly like a rock. 2. Iran's foreign minister denied recent contact with the US special envoy, saying such reports appeared to be only intended to mislead oil traders. 3. Foreign media: The Saudi crown prince suggested Trump continue striking Iran. 4. US Treasury Secretary: There was no intervention in the oil futures market, and oil prices may be "well below" $80 within months. 5. Iranian Foreign Ministry: Ships from parties not involved in the war have already passed through the Strait of Hormuz. 6. Trading in key London Metal Exchange contracts was once suspended for several hours. 7. Li Chenggang: The Chinese and US teams reached preliminary consensus on certain issues. 8. China and the US agreed to study the establishment of a cooperation mechanism to promote bilateral trade and investment. 9. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): From January to February, the national economy got off to a strong start and began well
Spot fundamentals:
Yesterday morning, SHFE lead fell sharply, once dropping below 16,200 yuan/mt in early trading, before recovering part of the losses. Suppliers shipped in line with the market, while some suppliers were reluctant to sell at low prices. Discounts narrowed significantly from last Friday, especially for primary lead smelter cargoes self-picked up from production site, with quotations in major producing areas quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. In addition, as losses widened at secondary lead smelters, some enterprises suspended shipments or offered quotes at high premiums. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises actively inquired and purchased, with more purchases in major producing areas. However, as market discounts narrowed or turned into premiums, procurement decreased accordingly, and spot market trading was relatively active.
Inventory: As of March 16, LME lead inventory increased by 75 mt, or 0.03%, to 284,575 mt; SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions increased slightly again.
Lead Price Forecast for Today:
After plunging sharply yesterday, SHFE lead recovered some of its losses, while discounts for primary lead spot cargo against last Friday narrowed. As losses widened, secondary lead enterprises quoted at premiums, with some choosing not to make shipments; secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead prices, prompting downstream buyers to favor purchases of primary lead. Overall, support from the spot market and cautious downstream sentiment are in a tug-of-war, making it difficult for lead prices to stage a strong reversal for now, with weak consolidation and sideways movement likely to dominate.
![LME lead fluctuated upward to close higher, while SHFE lead moved downwards after a higher opening and remained in the doldrums [SMM Lead Morning Brief]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/mIbTL20251217171721.jpg)
