SHFE Cast Aluminum Alloy Warrants Drop to 50,319 mt, Down 1,109 mt from Previous Day

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle made landfall near Coen, Far North Queensland, Australia, around 7:30 AM on March 20, 2026, as a Category 4 system (after peaking as Cat 5 offshore). It brought winds >250 km/h, 200–500 mm rain, flash flooding, and storm surge—one of the strongest cyclones to hit the region in decades. Rio Tinto shut down its Weipa bauxite operations (including Amrun and Andoom mines) as a precaution against destructive winds, heavy rain, and risks to infrastructure. The Weipa area supplies key global bauxite for aluminium production. Emergency evacuations occurred in remote communities like Lockhart River.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Australia's federal and NSW governments are negotiating a bailout for Tomago Aluminium (near Newcastle, majority Rio Tinto-owned), which uses ~10% of NSW power and risks closure by 2028 without affordable renewables. The plan uses Snowy Hydro to supply discounted long-term power (new renewables at market prices, taxpayers cover the gap). Estimated annual subsidy: $300–470 million for 10 years (billions total), based on ~700–900 MW load and ~$55–60/MWh price difference. Risks include taxpayer lock-in and market distortion from artificially low power for one industry.

[High Inventory Combined With Macro Headwinds Leads to a Phased Pullback in the Global Aluminum Market Risk Premium] Continued destocking in LME inventory provided bottom support for LME aluminum, but tightening liquidity and profit-taking by bulls left insufficient momentum for further gains, and the backwardation structure weakened somewhat. China’s social inventory rose to a seasonal high for the past five years, and the inventory buildup cycle has yet to end. High inventory and weak spot fundamentals jointly suppressed upward momentum. Divergence in domestic and overseas drivers continued, the SHFE/LME price ratio kept weakening, and the market was mainly under pressure in the short term.