SMM April 10 update:
Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot premiums against the current-month 2604 contract were quoted at a premium of 10-70 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 40 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SMM #1 copper cathode prices were 98,130-98,450 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2604 contract moved sideways before rising and then pulling back. The opening price was 97,960 yuan/mt. After a slight dip, prices moved sideways, then quickly rose to 98,410 yuan/mt, fluctuating between 98,300-98,400 yuan/mt. Prices then pulled back, fluctuating between 98,100-98,300 yuan/mt, before rising again to a high of 98,480 yuan/mt. Prices pulled back slightly toward the close, with the closing price at 98,330 yuan/mt. The inter-month Contango price spread ranged from 120 to 50 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for the SHFE copper current-month contract ranged from a profit of 130 yuan/mt to a profit of 210 yuan/mt.
Intraday, the selling sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 2.7, up 0.03 MoM, while the procurement sentiment was 2.86, down 0.25 MoM.. In the early morning session, suppliers quoted standard-quality copper at a premium of 20-50 yuan/mt, with Lufang and Xiangguang quoted at a premium of 20-50 yuan/mt, Jinfeng, Tiefeng, and Jintongyusheng at a premium of 20-30 yuan/mt, and Jinguan, Jinxin, Jintun PC, and Jinfeng quoted at a premium of 40-50 yuan/mt for factory pickup. High-quality copper from Guiye and Jintun (plate) was quoted at a premium of 50-70 yuan/mt. Non-registered copper was traded at a discount of 90 yuan/mt. In the second trading session, suppliers showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm. Standard-quality copper from JCC and Lufang was traded at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, and Jinchuan ISA was traded at a premium of 10 yuan/mt. Low-priced cargoes were otherwise hard to find in the market. High-quality copper from Jinchuan (plate), Guixi, and Jintun (plate) was quoted at a premium of 50-80 yuan/mt. In addition, available spot cargo in Jiangsu remained tight, and some downstream enterprises faced difficulties in sourcing supplies.
Looking ahead to next week, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend. Delivery side, next week will be the last trading week for the SHFE copper 2604 contract. The inter-month Contango price spread has widened slightly, and under the contango structure, suppliers' willingness to hold open interest for delivery has strengthened, with low willingness to sell spot cargo at low prices, providing strong support for spot premiums. Demand side, orders at some downstream processing enterprises may decline slightly following the rise in copper prices, but existing orders and production schedules remain generally stable, with just-in-time procurement continuing. Regional structure side, available spot cargo in Jiangsu remained tight, with some downstream enterprises reporting difficulties in spot procurement, further supporting spot premiums. Overall, driven by the combined effects of delivery expectations, the price spread structure between futures contracts, and tight regional supply, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2604 contract are expected to maintain a premium next week.
