Rio Tinto's U.S. Copper Mine Is Expected to Begin Production in the Mid-2030s; Overnight LME Copper Closed Lower While SHFE Copper Edged Up [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Wednesday, March 25, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,016.5/mt. After dipping to $11,955.5/mt in early trading, its center rose sharply to a high of $12,160/mt, then hovered at highs and finally closed at $12,092.5/mt, down 1.05%. Trading volume reached 23,000 lots, open interest stood at 293,000 lots, up 406 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting increased short positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 93,600 yuan/mt and hit a low of 93,480 yuan/mt right after the open. Its center then moved higher to a high of 94,990 yuan/mt, after which copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend at highs, and it finally closed at 94,670 yuan/mt, up 0.17%. Trading volume reached 51,000 lots, open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 533 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting reduced short positions throughout the day.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) On March 24 (Tuesday), a Rio Tinto executive said the company expected the Resolution Copper mine in Arizona, US, to begin production in the mid-2030s. After years of litigation, the Anglo-Australian mining giant obtained control this month of the land needed to build one of the world’s largest copper mines. The company has now launched a $500 million drilling program to explore the 30% of the deposit area that had previously been inaccessible. This exploration will help the company determine the commissioning timetable, but the first copper ore is expected to be produced within a decade. Katie Jackson, head of Rio Tinto’s copper business, said in an interview on the sidelines of the CERAWeek conference in Houston: “We are committed to bringing the copper mine into production as soon as possible.” Rio Tinto currently operates the Kennecott copper mine and smelter in Utah, US, with all of its production consumed domestically in the US. Another copper smelter in the US is operated by Freeport-McMoRan.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of March 24, the SHFE copper 2604 contract fell, stabilized, and then fluctuated rangebound. It opened at 94,720 yuan/mt, continued to fall after the open to 93,880 yuan/mt, then stabilized somewhat and fluctuated between 93,770 yuan/mt and 94,270 yuan/mt, with a closing price of 94,010 yuan/mt. The price spread between futures contracts for nearby months ranged from Contango 50 yuan/mt to Backwardation 10 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for SHFE copper nearby-month contracts ranged from a profit of 70 yuan/mt to a profit of 200 yuan/mt. On March 24, copper prices rose from March 23, but both buying and selling sentiment pulled back intraday, indicating that downstream acceptance of current price levels remained limited. From the market structure perspective, under the current price spread structure, suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, and some suppliers engaged in sell-offs, driving overall spot discounts down rapidly, while downstream willingness to make counteroffers was relatively evident. In the second trading session, after premiums were lowered further, market transactions improved somewhat, but downstream procurement remained generally cautious, mostly focused on restocking on dips, with insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between active shipments by suppliers and cautious downstream procurement, Shanghai spot copper discounts were expected to remain under pressure today.
(2) Guangdong: On March 24, spot prices of Guangdong #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were reported at 70 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; a discount of 30 yuan/mt for standard-quality copper, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; and a discount of 90 yuan/mt for SX-EW copper, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 94,030 yuan/mt, up 1,045 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 93,920 yuan/mt, up 1,055 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, after the sharp rebound in copper prices, downstream buying sentiment weakened and spot premiums declined.
(3) Imported copper: On March 24, the average warrant price was unchanged from the previous trading day at $52/mt (price range: $44-60/mt); the average B/L price was unchanged from the previous trading day at $53/mt (price range: $45-61/mt); and the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was unchanged from the previous trading day at $30/mt (price range: $25-35/mt), with quotations referring to cargoes expected to arrive from late March to mid-April.
(4) Secondary copper: On March 24, the futures closing price at 11:30 was 940,100 yuan/mt, up 1,390 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average spot premiums stood at -75 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On March 24, copper scrap prices rose 1,200 yuan/mt MoM, the copper scrap sales sentiment index rose to 2.27, the procurement sentiment index rose to 2.34, and the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 46 yuan/mt, up 32 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 660 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper prices retreated after rapid rise today, and many secondary copper rod enterprises said they were able to procure a small amount of copper scrap, but the procurement volume was still not enough to meet the day's production needs. As copper prices were relatively low, suppliers of copper scrap showed only moderate willingness to sell.
Prices: On the macro front, the US Department of Justice admitted that its investigation into Powell lacked evidence, and Powell's term may be extended, causing market expectations for interest rate cuts to cool again and putting copper prices under pressure. In addition, the market lowered its optimistic expectations for a swift end to the Middle East situation, and the stronger US dollar also put copper prices under pressure. Fundamentals, supply side, under the current price spread between futures contracts structure, suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, and market circulation of cargoes was ample; demand side, downstream players mainly bought the dip, with insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, copper prices are expected to remain in the doldrums today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]