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[Geopolitical Disruptions Coupled With a Stronger US Dollar Put Aluminum Prices Under Pressure and Cause Volatility] Continued destocking in LME inventory provided bottom support for LME aluminum, but amid tightening capital liquidity and profit-taking by bulls, upward momentum was insufficient, and the backwardation structure weakened somewhat. China’s social inventory rose to a high for the same period in nearly five years, and the inventory buildup cycle has yet to end, with high inventory and weak spot fundamentals jointly suppressing upward momentum. The divergence between domestic and overseas drivers continued, the SHFE/LME price ratio kept weakening, and prices were mainly under pressure in the short term.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Rebound Drove Quotation Increases, While Weak Transactions Capped Gains] Spot side, yesterday the secondary aluminum alloy market was lifted by the futures rebound, with quotations edging up and mainstream gains at 100 yuan/mt. Some enterprises raised prices in line with the trend to recover earlier losses, and market sentiment improved slightly from the previous period. However, transactions remained weak, with downstream buyers mainly purchasing as needed and showing limited acceptance of high prices, constraining upside room for prices. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound, and further gains will still require substantive improvement on the demand side.

[SMM Flash News] SHFE data showed that as of March 25, the total registered volume of cast aluminum alloy warrants was 42,944 mt, down 2,519 mt from the previous trading day. By region, the total registered volumes were Shanghai (2,635 mt, down 120 mt), Guangdong (16,686 mt, down 571 mt), Jiangsu (3,608 mt, down 601 mt), Zhejiang (12,565 mt, down 1,107 mt), Chongqing (3,664 mt, down 60 mt), and Sichuan (1,267 mt, down 60 mt).