Aluminum Alloy Prices Rise on Strong Futures Market Sentiment Post-Holiday

[SMM Aluminum Express News] PT Supreme Alumina Indonesia (a subsidiary of PT Laman Mining) has submitted its Environmental Impact Assessment (AMDAL) for a planned smelter-grade alumina refinery in Ketapang Regency, West Kalimantan. The project targets 2.4 million tonnes per year (tpy) alumina production, requiring ~7.9 million tpy bauxite input. Estimated investment: ~USD 1.5 billion (IDR 25 trillion). Construction targeted to start Q2 2026.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Inalum CEO Melati Sarnita expressed optimism that Indonesia can achieve aluminum self-sufficiency by 2030. She highlighted that reducing import dependence on alumina and aluminum could boost foreign exchange reserves by 394%—from Rp11 trillion to Rp52 trillion annually—by providing domestic manufacturers with reliable local raw material supply. The strategy emphasizes import substitution and integration of green energy in the aluminum value chain, supported by ongoing downstream projects (bauxite-alumina-smelter) in Mempawah and elsewhere.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Alloy Enterprises Yet to Resume Work, Market Mainly Sluggish] On Tuesday, the SMM ADC12 price was raised by 100 yuan/mt to 23,750 yuan/mt. Post-holiday, futures showed strong performance on the first day, boosting market sentiment, but secondary aluminum enterprises' quotations displayed some divergence. Some enterprises, considering downstream operations have not fully resumed, maintained pre-holiday quotation ranges, holding steady and adopting a wait-and-see approach; others raised prices by 100 yuan/mt accordingly. Inquiry activity in the market gradually recovered, but actual transactions remained relatively light, with the market still dominated by a wait-and-see stance. As the shutdown period for secondary aluminum plants this year was slightly longer YoY, most enterprises are scheduled to resume work between the eighth and fifteenth days of the first lunar month. Supply release pace is expected to be relatively slow in the first week after the holiday, providing phased support to prices. However, demand-side recovery is more likely to be gradual; before end-user orders show significant volume, downstream procurement will remain cautious and need-based. Cost side, continued attention is needed on price fluctuations of aluminum scrap and auxiliary materials such as copper and silicon. Primary aluminum trends remain a key variable affecting market sentiment and the price center. Overall, ADC12 prices are likely to continue the pre-holiday sideways movement pattern in the initial post-holiday period. Subsequent direction will depend on supply-demand matching after full production resumptions and primary aluminum price performance. If phased restocking coincides with primary aluminum holding up well, there is room for price recovery; otherwise, prices may face slight pressure, but the overall trend is expected to remain sideways.