Delivery support and resistance to high prices coexisted, while Shanghai spot copper spot premiums remained generally stable [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

SMM, March 12:

In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2603 contract gapped higher at the open, fluctuated widely, and then gradually trended lower. It opened at 100,880 yuan/mt, moved between 100,650 yuan/mt and 100,850 yuan/mt after the open, then fell to an intraday low of 100,170 yuan/mt before stabilizing and rebounding. The closing price was 100,290 yuan/mt. The intermonth Contango price spread ranged from 360 yuan/mt to 240 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for the front-month SHFE copper contract showed a loss of 210 yuan/mt to 90 yuan/mt.

Intraday, sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai stood at 2.94, up 0.01 MoM, while purchasing sentiment was 2.71, down 0.07 MoM.. In early morning trading, suppliers quoted standard-quality copper at premiums of 50-100 yuan/mt, with Xiangguang, HMG-B, JCC, and Lufang quoted at premiums of 80-100 yuan/mt, while Zhongtiaoshan, Zhongjin, Jinfeng, and Jinchuan ISA Yongchang were quoted at premiums of 50-80 yuan/mt; high-quality copper such as Guixi and Jinchuan (plate) was quoted at premiums of 120-150 yuan/mt; registered SX-EW copper was scarce, with only some Myanmar cargoes circulating, so prices remained firm at a premium of 20 yuan/mt; non-registered copper was quoted at discounts of 50-30 yuan/mt. Entering the second trading period, downstream enterprises showed weaker purchasing sentiment, and some suppliers lowered prices. Standard-quality copper was quoted at premiums of 10-80 yuan/mt. Lufang and JCC were traded at premiums of 50-60 yuan/mt, while Jinguan, Jinxin, Tongguan, and Jinfeng were successively traded at quoted premiums of 60-80 yuan/mt; Honglu and Tiefeng were traded at premiums of 10-20 yuan/mt.

As delivery approached, the intermonth Contango price spread still held around 300 yuan/mt, and suppliers remained willing to ship to delivery warehouses, providing strong support for Shanghai spot copper premiums. Demand side, downstream maintained just-in-time procurement, offering some support to prices, but some downstream enterprises showed limited acceptance of high-premium spot copper intraday, with procurement turning cautious; Supply side, domestic copper and previously price-locked imported cargoes continued to arrive, and social inventory remained high. According to SMM, social inventory in Shanghai this week was basically flat from the beginning of the week. Overall, under the dominance of delivery logic, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain in premium territory tomorrow.