Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Hold Heat Up, Aluminum Prices Expected to Move Sideways in Short Term [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes]
[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Hike Heat Up, Aluminum Prices to Move Sideways in the Short Term] Overall, from a macro perspective, rising short-term expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes are pushing up the US dollar, while geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran and tariff policies are intensifying risk aversion. Coupled with a slowdown in US economic resilience and a weak recovery in the eurozone, the global macro environment is characterized by a fragile balance and high fluctuations. Seasonal pressure from the fundamentals is becoming more pronounced. On the supply side, new aluminum projects domestically and overseas are steadily ramping up production. Demand side, attention should be paid to the pace of downstream enterprise resumptions after the holiday. Currently, due to seasonal oversupply, the market widely expects post-holiday inventory peaks to reach 1.3 million mt, hitting a five-year high, which will be a key factor suppressing prices. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to move sideways in the short term.