[SMM Analysis] Review of the Lithium Ore Market During the 2026 Chinese New Year Holiday and Post-Holiday Outlook

Prior to the Chinese New Year, the lithium ore market as a whole showed signs of stabilization and cautious observation, with sluggish trading. Overseas lithium ore prices indicated some recovery. According to SMM data, on February 13, the quotation range for Australian spodumene concentrates was $1,950-2,060/mt, with an average price of $2,005/mt.

Supply side, expectations for overall supply in the overseas lithium ore market in February remained stable, but spot circulation was somewhat stagnant. From late January to early February, driven by the turnaround from decline to rise in the most-traded lithium carbonate futures contract, overseas miners and traders significantly strengthened their willingness to hold prices firm, and their willingness to sell at low prices notably decreased. At the same time, with downstream pre-holiday stockpiling largely completed, coupled with the restraining effect of high quotations, spot market trading became noticeably sluggish, and downstream acceptance of high-priced ore remained limited. Before the holiday, lithium chemical plants mainly focused on executing long-term contracts, with sparse spot order transactions, and the market mostly revolved around long-term contract pricing mechanisms and psychological expectations.

During the Chinese New Year, due to the domestic holiday effect, port customs clearance, loading and unloading, and inland transportation activities basically came to a halt, leading the spot market into a seasonal silence.

Looking ahead, on the supply side, major overseas miners maintained a normal shipping pace, with some top miners, such as PLS, announcing the mid-year restart of the Ngungaju plant, signaling the resumption of low-cost capacity, demonstrating the operational resilience of overseas mines through the cycle. On the demand side, given that February coincided with the concentrated maintenance period for domestic lithium chemical plants, short-term consumption of concentrates experienced a temporary decline; however, as the post-holiday March production resumption period approaches, the rigid raw material procurement needs of chemical plants are expected to gradually be released, and market activity may recover.