Peru Released December Copper Export Data; Overnight, Both LME Copper and SHFE Copper Closed Lower [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Friday, March 13, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,044/mt. After hitting a high of $13,063.5/mt in early trading, its center moved lower and touched a low of $12,929/mt, before finally closing at $12,948.5/mt, down 0.77%. Trading volume fell by 235 lots from the previous trading day to 17,000 lots; open interest increased by 279 lots from the previous trading day to 304,000 lots, with the overall performance mainly reflecting bears adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 101,240 yuan/mt and hit a high of 101,240 yuan/mt right after the opening. It then moved lower and touched a low of 100,560 yuan/mt, before finally closing at 100,860 yuan/mt, down 0.15%. Trading volume fell by 62,000 lots from the previous trading day to 26,000 lots; open interest decreased by 3,320 lots from the previous trading day to 189,000 lots, with the overall performance mainly reflecting bulls reducing positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) Data released by Peru's central bank showed that Peru exported 205,900 mt of copper, 3,000 mt of tin, 615,800 oz of gold, 400,000 oz of refined silver, 108,300 mt of lead, and 100,300 mt of zinc in December 2025.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of March 12, the SHFE copper 2603 contract opened sharply higher and then gradually trended downward after wide fluctuations. It opened at 100,880 yuan/mt, fluctuated between 100,650 yuan/mt and 100,850 yuan/mt after the opening, then declined to a low of 100,170 yuan/mt, before stabilizing and rebounding. As of the close, it stood at 100,290 yuan/mt. The inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts ranged between 360 yuan/mt and 240 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for the SHFE copper front-month contract showed a loss ranging between 210 yuan/mt and 90 yuan/mt. As delivery approached, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts remained at around 300 yuan/mt, and suppliers still had the willingness to ship to delivery warehouse, providing strong support for Shanghai spot copper premiums. Demand side, downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, providing some support for prices, but some downstream enterprises showed limited acceptance of spot copper with high premiums during the day, and procurement turned cautious; supply side, domestic copper and previously price-locked imported cargoes continued to arrive, while social inventory remained high. According to SMM, social inventory in Shanghai was basically flat this week from the beginning of the week. Overall, under the dominance of delivery logic, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain in premium territory today.
(2) Guangdong: On March 12, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were reported as follows: high-quality copper at a premium of 160 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt; standard-quality copper at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt; and SX-EW copper at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 100,860 yuan/mt, down 475 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 100,740 yuan/mt, down 470 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, inventory continued to decline and copper prices fell, prompting suppliers to actively hold prices firm, but downstream procurement was weaker than yesterday, and overall trading was average.
(3) Imported copper: On March 12, the average warrant price was unchanged from the previous trading day; the average B/L price was unchanged from the previous trading day, and the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price rose by $3/mt from the previous trading day, with quotes referring to cargoes arriving from mid-to-late March to early April.
(4) Secondary copper: As of 11:30 on March 12, the futures closing price was 100,310 yuan/mt, down 990 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premiums were 85 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On March 12, copper scrap prices fell by 300 yuan/mt MoM, the copper scrap sales sentiment index declined to 2.36, the procurement sentiment index rose to 2.45, and the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 595 yuan/mt, down 640 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 460 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, as secondary copper rod remained at premiums against futures, while copper anode maintained discounts of 1,300-1,500 yuan/mt, many scrap utilization enterprises were assessing whether secondary copper rod could achieve actual transactions in the market. If transactions were seen for secondary copper rod at parity or even premiums, some scrap utilization enterprises were considering converting part of their scrap-derived copper anode capacity into secondary copper rod capacity next week.
Prices: On the macro front, oil tankers in the Gulf region were attacked, and Iran stated that it would continue to close the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices strengthened, and rising risk-off sentiment in the market pushed up the US dollar index, weighing on copper prices. In addition, the market cut its bets on US Fed interest rate cuts this year to 20 basis points, less than one cut, which was also bearish for copper prices. Fundamentally, on the supply side, imported cargoes continued to arrive, and spot cargo circulation in the market was ample; on the demand side, downstream just-in-time procurement sentiment still remained. On inventory, as of Thursday, March 12, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide fell 0.57% WoW from last Thursday. Overall, amid the impact of macro headwinds and support from fundamental destocking, copper prices were expected to fluctuate rangebound today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]