[SMM Analysis] Review and Post-Holiday Outlook of the High-Grade NPI Market During the 2026 Chinese New Year Holiday

Published: Feb 24, 2026 18:58

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[SMM Analysis: Review and Post-Holiday Outlook of the High-Grade NPI Market During the 2026 Chinese New Year Holiday] Looking ahead, from a macro perspective, influenced by Indonesia's quota tightening policy, nickel prices are expected to enter a pattern of high-level wide swings after the Chinese New Year holiday, which will drive high-grade NPI prices.

According to SMM, during the Chinese New Year holiday, the domestic high-grade NPI market showed weak performance on both the supply and demand sides, with overall trading being sluggish.

Supply side, domestic smelters generally implemented production cuts during the holiday, leading to a significant decrease in trading activity and a noticeable contraction in high-grade NPI supply. Additionally, prior to the holiday, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources set the 2026 nickel ore RKAB mining quota at around 260 million mt, significantly boosting market sentiment regarding tight supply. Demand side, downstream stainless steel enterprises had completed stockpiling before the holiday, and coupled with holiday shutdowns, procurement demand for high-grade NPI saw a significant pullback, resulting in overall sluggish market trading.

Looking ahead, from a macro perspective, influenced by Indonesia's quota tightening policy, nickel prices are expected to enter a pattern of high-level wide swings after the Chinese New Year holiday, which will drive high-grade NPI prices. Cost side, due to the quota tightening news and the impact of the tailings landslide accident at the Indonesian IMIP park, nickel ore prices have risen, and high-grade NPI costs are expected to continue increasing, also providing support for high-grade NPI prices. Overall, under the dual effects of support from high refined nickel prices and rising nickel ore costs, high-grade NPI prices are expected to receive strong support, and the market trading center is anticipated to steadily move upward.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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