[SMM Analysis] Wait-and-See Mood Prevails Post-Holiday, FeMo Firmly Supported

SMM, February 24:

During the holiday period, trading in the domestic molybdenum market was scarce, and the market entered a closed state. The international molybdenum oxide price surged and then retreated. Before the holiday, stimulated by the sudden accident at a U.S. molybdenum enterprise and the earlier production cut news from Chilean copper-molybdenum mines, the international molybdenum oxide price briefly hit a high of 36 USD/lb Mo. Subsequently, affected by weakening demand as the Chinese market entered the holiday, the price fell back to the range of 26-27 USD/lb Mo. On the first trading day after the holiday, the domestic molybdenum market was dominated by strong wait-and-see sentiment, with scarce transactions in the molybdenum concentrate market, and prices mostly hovered around the pre-holiday quotation range. Although the international molybdenum oxide price surged and then retreated during the Spring Festival, its overall center edged slightly upward. Most molybdenum ferroalloy enterprises remained on the sidelines, with some suspending quotations, while others held firm on their offers amid optimism over the market outlook.

Raw material side: After the holiday, transactions in the domestic molybdenum concentrate market were scarce. Major mines did not see large-scale shipments during the day, resulting in limited market guidance. Downstream molybdenum ferroalloy enterprises were still operating at low levels during the holiday, and purchasing volumes remained to be followed up. Today, the international molybdenum oxide price rebounded, boosting overall market sentiment. Imported molybdenum oxide at Tianjin Port fluctuated in the range of 26-27 USD/lb Mo. The SMM 45% molybdenum concentrate price closed at 4140-4170 yuan/tonnage degree, unchanged from pre-holiday levels.

Ferromolybdenum market: During the holiday, operating rates in the domestic ferromolybdenum industry declined, with some enterprises yet to resume work, tightening spot circulation in the market. Supported by stable raw material costs, holders maintained firm offers today. Mainstream market transactions were concentrated at 270,000-278,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,000 yuan/ton from pre-holiday levels. Some holders shifted their quotation focus to around 280,000 yuan/ton. A large special steel mill in East China and a steel mill in Hunan entered the market for tenders, and transactions gradually became active.

Overall: Before the holiday, the molybdenum market rebounded due to increased downstream restocking demand and the boost from the surge in international molybdenum oxide. On the first trading day after the holiday, the domestic molybdenum mine market was dominated by wait-and-see sentiment. However, supported by declining ore grades and seasonal weakness in operating rates, supply remained tight in the short term. The downstream ferromolybdenum market was strongly supported by costs, coupled with increased post-holiday restocking demand from steel mills. It is expected that the short-term ferromolybdenum market will maintain a strong and volatile trend. In the medium to long term, attention should still be paid to the shipment rhythm of domestic mines and changes in molybdenum demand from domestic steel mills.