Post-holiday aluminum prices rebound, alloy enterprises still feel lingering effects of Chinese New Year [SMM cast aluminum alloy morning comment]

SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment for 2.24

Futures: There was no night session on the evening of February 13, 2026. On the last trading day before the holiday (February 13), the aluminum alloy 2603 contract closed at 22,040 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan or 0.45% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 5,427 lots, and open interest was 11,955 lots. Trading volume increased slightly, but open interest decreased, indicating that some bullish funds exited the market and wait-and-see sentiment was relatively strong. The K-line ran below the D-line, and the J-line retreated from highs to around 40, showing insufficient short-term momentum and the possibility of further weakening.

Basis Daily: According to SMM data, on February 13, the SMM ADC12 spot price was at a theoretical premium of 1,575 yuan/mt to the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminum alloy contract (AD2604) at 10:15.

Warrants Daily: SHFE data showed that on February 13, the total registered volume of cast aluminum alloy warrants was 66,366 mt, a decrease of 272 mt from the previous trading day. The breakdown by region was: Shanghai (total registered volume 6,490 mt, unchanged from the previous day); Guangdong (23,181 mt, unchanged); Jiangsu (8,531 mt, down 150 mt); Zhejiang (22,127 mt, down 122 mt); Chongqing (4,684 mt, unchanged); Sichuan (1,353 mt, unchanged).

Aluminum Scrap: On the last trading day before the holiday, the spot price of primary aluminum fell compared to the previous trading day, with the SMM A00 spot price closing at 23,160 yuan/mt. The aluminum scrap market followed the decline overall. Baled UBC was quoted in the range of 16,750-17,200 yuan/mt (tax excluded), and shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content) was quoted in the range of 18,900-19,600 yuan/mt (tax excluded). Aluminum scrap prices are expected to hover at highs this week, as downstream demand is unlikely to recover quickly. The mainstream trading range for shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content) is still expected to be around 19,000-19,800 yuan/mt (tax excluded). Scrap yards and some scrap utilization enterprises had not yet ended their holidays, constraining the recovery of new scrap. Tight supply release, coupled with high aluminum prices, provided bottom support for aluminum scrap prices. However, downstream demand fell compared to January, and market transactions are expected to remain sluggish. In the short term, the supply-demand standoff with both sides weak is likely to persist, with transactions mainly driven by rigid restocking needs. Close attention should be paid to the pace of resumption at downstream processing enterprises after the holiday, and be alert to the possibility that post-holiday resumption expectations could reignite market sentiment, pushing aluminum prices higher and keeping the aluminum scrap trading atmosphere persistently sluggish.

Silicon Metal: On February 13, SMM prices in east China were: non-oxygen blown #553 at 9,100-9,300 yuan/mt; oxygen-blown #553 at 9,200-9,400 yuan/mt; #521 at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt; #441 at 9,300-9,600 yuan/mt; #421 at 9,500-9,800 yuan/mt; #421 for silicone use at 9,800-10,200 yuan/mt; #3303 at 10,200-10,400 yuan/mt. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Northwest China, Shanghai, Xinjiang, and Sichuan remained stable.

Summary: After the Chinese New Year holiday, the secondary aluminum alloy market transitioned from the pre-holiday state of "weak supply and demand with stable prices" to a phase of balancing the pace of production resumptions and demand recovery. As the shutdown period for secondary aluminum plants this year was slightly longer YoY, most enterprises resumed operations between the eighth and fifteenth days of the first lunar month. Supply release in the first week after the holiday was expected to be relatively slow, providing temporary support for prices. However, demand-side recovery was more likely to be gradual; before end-user orders showed significant growth, downstream procurement remained cautious and need-based. Cost side, continuous attention should be paid to price fluctuations of aluminum scrap and auxiliary materials such as copper and silicon, while primary aluminum trends remained a key variable influencing market sentiment and the price center. Overall, ADC12 prices were likely to continue their pre-holiday sideways movement in the initial post-holiday period. Subsequent direction depended on supply-demand matching after full production resumption and primary aluminum price performance. If periodic restocking coincided with strong primary aluminum prices, there was room for price recovery; otherwise, prices might face slight pressure but were expected to remain largely range-bound.

[Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not intended as decision-making advice.]