Persistent US Inflation Continues, Weighing on the Center of LME Zinc [SMM Morning Meeting Summary]

Futures: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,313/mt. In early trading, LME zinc maintained a fluctuating trend and touched a high of $3,352/mt. Entering the European trading session, LME zinc fell rapidly to a low of $3,296.5/mt. In the night session, LME zinc gradually recouped its losses and fluctuated upward to hover near the daily average line, finally closing down at $3,315.5/mt, down $26.5/mt, or 0.79 percent. Trading volume decreased to 91,642 lots, and open interest increased by 494 lots to 217,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2604 contract opened lower with a gap at 24,245 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE zinc fluctuated and fell to a low of 24,095 yuan/mt, after which bears reduced positions and SHFE zinc gradually rose above the daily average line, touching a high of 24,385 yuan/mt near the close. It finally closed down at 24,375 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt, or 0.04 percent. Trading volume decreased to 54,485 lots, and open interest increased by 94 lots to 74,314 lots.

Macro: The US February CPI came in without surprises; Trump said Iran had “nothing left to strike,” and the war would end soon; the Iranian president proposed three necessary conditions for ending the war; the FBI warned that Iran planned to launch a drone strike on California from near the US mainland coast; Iran’s Revolutionary Guard opened fire on vessels in the Gulf region that failed to obey orders; the IEA announced the release of 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves to the market; the central bank said it would deepen the integration of business and technology and actively, prudently, safely, and orderly advance the application of artificial intelligence in the financial sector; the supercomputing internet distributed 10 million Tokens free of charge to every OpenClaw user.

Spot:

Shanghai: Yesterday, purchase sentiment for refined zinc in Shanghai was 2.06, and shipments sentiment was 2.59. Zinc ingot supply in Shanghai was ample, but there was no improvement in downstream enterprises’ inquiries and purchases. Overall trading was mainly among traders. Some suppliers continued to lower spot quotations for shipments, and spot discounts in the market remained at a low level.

Guangdong: Purchase sentiment for refined zinc in Guangdong was 2.03, and sales sentiment was 2.35. Yesterday morning, zinc prices rose from the previous day. Premiums for some brands declined slightly, but premiums for most brands remained relatively firm. Coupled with some just-in-time procurement demand from downstream buyers, spot premiums edged up slightly.

Tianjin: Yesterday, purchase sentiment for refined zinc in Tianjin was 2.21, and shipments sentiment was 2.38. Yesterday, zinc prices fluctuated and rebounded, with downstream restocking mainly driven by just-in-time demand, while bearish sentiment still persisted. Amid poor shipments by traders, premiums declined slightly, and overall market transactions worsened compared with the previous day.

Ningbo: Zinc ingot inventory remained persistently high. Yesterday, downstream enterprises showed low purchase willingness in inquiries, and overall market transactions did not improve. Traders quoted prices and made shipments in a laid-back manner, while spot discounts maintained at a low level.

Inventory: As of March 11, LME zinc inventory decreased by 50 mt to 98,900 mt, down 0.05 percent; as of March 9, inventory in China continued to increase.

Zinc Price Outlook: Overnight, LME zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with resistance from the upper Bollinger Band and support from the lower Bollinger Band. As investors remained alert to further escalation of the Middle East conflict, the US dollar rose, and the US February CPI met expectations, indicating that inflation remained sticky, LME zinc fluctuated lower. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a small bullish candlestick, with support from the lower Bollinger Band. At present, China’s social inventory remained generally high. Coupled with expectations that China’s zinc ingot supply will continue to increase in March and demand performance was relatively average, attention should be paid to today’s inventory changes in China.

Data Source Statement: Except for public information, all other data was processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database model, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.