Three Canadian Mining Projects Enter Fast Track, LME Copper Extended Losses Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Tuesday, February 24, 2026
Futures: LME copper opened at $12,967/mt overnight. It hit a high of $12,984/mt at the beginning of the session, then the price center fluctuated downward. It touched a low of $12,804/mt near the end of the session and finally closed at $12,901/mt, down 0.76%. Trading volume reached 12,000 lots, a decrease of 4,963 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest reached 318,000 lots, an increase of 327 lots from the previous trading day, with the overall performance mainly characterized by bears increasing positions. The most-traded SHFE copper contract was closed overnight due to the Chinese New Year holiday.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) The Critical Minerals Office of British Columbia, Canada, announced that three mineral projects - copper-gold, copper-molybdenum, and rare earths - have been included in a fast-track coordination channel to accelerate Indigenous consultation and environmental assessment approval processes. Stimulated by this positive news, the share prices of the three companies surged between 8.3% and 22.2%. Fundamental data indicates these three projects have huge economic potential, with estimated after-tax net present values ranging from C$1 billion to C$2 billion.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: In the morning session on February 13, the SHFE copper 2602 contract showed slight gains after opening. The opening price was 100,160 yuan/mt. After opening, the price rose, fluctuating overall between 100,090 yuan/mt and 100,480 yuan/mt. The closing price was 100,400 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between the front-month and next-month contracts was between 500 yuan/mt and 400 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for the front-month SHFE copper contract was between a loss of 610 yuan/mt and 470 yuan/mt. Looking ahead post-holiday, as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, market participation continues to decline. Most suppliers and downstream enterprises have gradually entered the holiday period, resulting in sluggish overall trading activity during the day. Supply side, the price ratio cargoes locked in during the previous period when the import window was open are continuously arriving at ports, leading to a significant inventory buildup in the Shanghai area during the day. Demand side, as the holiday approaches, downstream enterprises are generally on holiday, and procurement demand continues to weaken. Furthermore, today is the last trading day for the SHFE copper 2602 contract, and most suppliers chose to hold positions over the holiday awaiting delivery. During the day, some suppliers were already testing offers near parity against the SHFE copper 2603 contract. Spot premiums for Shanghai spot copper against the SHFE copper 2603 contract are expected to open high and move lower on the first day after the holiday. It is worth noting that although delivery will lock up some warrant cargoes, the imported cargoes arriving before and during the holiday may impact spot transactions. On the first trading day after the holiday, as SMM always quotes against the front-month contract, high premiums against the front-month contract are expected based on the spread conversion, but this is expected to be corrected on the second trading day. Overall, spot premiums and discounts remain under pressure.
(2) Guangdong: On February 13, spot prices for #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract were at a discount of 100 yuan/mt to a premium of 20 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 40 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 180 yuan/mt to 140 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 160 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price for Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 100,190 yuan/mt, down 1,815 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price for SX-EW copper was 100,070 yuan/mt, down 1,815 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
(3) Imported copper: On February 13, warrant prices were $26-40/mt, QP February, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $28-42/mt, QP March, with the average price down $2/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $12-20/mt, QP March, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late February.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on February 13, the futures closing price was 100,400 yuan/mt, down 1,550 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premium/discount was 0 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On February 13, the price of copper scrap fell 1,300 yuan/mt MoM; the price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 88,500-88,700 yuan/mt, down 1,300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,037 yuan/mt, down 62 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 437.5 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, secondary copper rod enterprises, scrap-derived copper anode enterprises, and copper scrap yards were fully closed for the holiday, with the earliest resumption expected on February 24 (the eighth day of the lunar new year).
Prices: On the macro front, Trump warned that countries not complying with trade agreements with the US would face higher tariffs, increasing market uncertainty. Additionally, LME inventory continued to climb, hitting a new high since March 2025, putting copper prices under pressure. On the fundamentals side, affected by the Chinese New Year holiday, downstream demand showed mediocre performance, with further observation needed on the pace of post-holiday resumption and restocking willingness. Overall, due to inventory buildup, copper prices were expected to continue their decline today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]