Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,940.5/mt. It held up well during the Asian session and touched a high of $1,949/mt. After entering the European session, it fluctuated downward and fell to a low of $1,932.5/mt, then edged up slightly to recover part of the losses, finally closing at $1,938.5/mt, down $6.5/mt, a decline of 0.33%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,645 yuan/mt. After falling at the beginning of the session to a low of 16,600 yuan/mt, it rebounded to a high of 16,665 yuan/mt, then weakened slightly and finally closed at 16,655 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt from the previous day, an increase of 0.03%.
US core inflation in February unexpectedly slowed, offering slight relief to price pressures before the outbreak of the Iran war. However, as the US and Israel jointly struck Iran and the Strait of Hormuz was closed, international oil prices surged sharply, pushing up the costs of petroleum, gasoline, and fertilizers. The market generally believed that inflation would rebound in March. After the data release, the probability that the US Fed would keep interest rates unchanged next week was as high as 99.4%, while inflation concerns triggered by the war were further delaying the market's expectations for interest rate cuts within the year. MIIT: The "Industrial Data Foundation Action" was officially launched, focusing on breaking through bottlenecks in the "collection," "aggregation," and "application" of industrial data. The action will carry out pilot efforts in building high-quality industry datasets for AI empowerment, with the goal of fostering a number of industry data cooperation consortiums by the end of 2026, creating trusted interconnection platforms for data in key industries, and establishing four major resource banks including industry data and technological research.
Spot Fundamentals:
In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at discounts of 80~0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2604 contract. SHFE lead remained in the doldrums, and its center moved lower. In addition, as some suppliers transferred cargo to delivery warehouses, circulating supply decreased slightly, and some suppliers intended to narrow their quoted discounts. Mainstream producing areas quoted ex-factory prices at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Meanwhile, supply in the secondary lead market was limited, with little circulating cargo available. Smelters held prices firm on shipments, and secondary refined lead was quoted ex-factory around parity against the SMM #1 lead average price. In addition, downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, with some intending to purchase on dips. Enquiry sentiment improved slightly, but spot order market transactions had yet to show significant improvement. In terms of inventory, as of March 11, LME lead inventory stood at 284,875 mt, unchanged again from the previous day; as of March 9, SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions continued to accumulate.
Lead Price Forecast for Today:
As the delivery of the front-month contract approaches, the spot-futures price spread for refined lead spot has made delivery warehouse shipments profitable in the short term. Coupled with increased supply from the resumption of production at some primary lead smelters in Hunan and the arrival of imported lead cargoes, expectations that social inventory of refined lead will continue to build up are expected to become more evident. Secondary refined lead, upstream enterprises showed low willingness to make shipments. Due to firm scrap battery prices, smelters maintained offers with hold prices firm and reluctance to sell, while the downstream preference for just-in-time procurement of primary lead has not yet improved. Although both supply and demand in the lead market increased in early March, supply growth may precede the recovery in consumption. In the short term, lead market fundamentals remained weak, and lead prices were expected to continue a fluctuating trend in the doldrums.
Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice
![Overnight Lead Futures Traded Sideways; LME Lead Posted a Second Consecutive Loss, While SHFE Lead Closed Slightly Higher [SMM Lead Morning Brief]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/xVUpr20251217171722.jpg)
![SHFE Lead Pulled Back Slightly After a Mild Rise Ahead of Delivery, with Weak Fundamentals Dominating the Market [Lead Futures Brief Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/EhsCj20251217171721.jpeg)
