SMM February 23:
Futures: During the Chinese New Year holiday (February 15 to February 23), the SHFE aluminum market was closed. LME aluminum showed a V-shaped trend of falling first then rising. As of February 20, LME aluminum opened at $3,074/mt, hit a high of $3,119/mt, a low of $3,067/mt, and finally closed at $3,105.5/mt, up 1.21% from the previous day and about 0.49% higher than the pre-holiday (February 13) closing price.
Macro front: Limited expectations for US metal tariff adjustments, divergent US and Europe PMI data.
On February 16, news emerged that the White House is considering narrowing the scope of metal import tariffs due to concerns that high tariffs harm downstream manufacturing and consumer costs; however, the Treasury Secretary subsequently stated "there are no immediate plans for a comprehensive removal," suggesting limited expected policy adjustments, which continue to support the global aluminum price system in the short term. On February 20, the US February S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading was 51.2, compared with expectations of 52.6 and a previous value of 52.4. The US February S&P Global Services PMI preliminary reading was 52.3, versus expectations of 53 and a previous value of 52.7. The February 2026 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading significantly rebounded to 50.8 from January's 49.5, exceeding market expectations of 50.0, marking the first time the index has surpassed the 50 mark since June 2022.
Fundamentals: Mozal aluminum plant shutdown catalyzes supply tightening, domestic aluminum inventory approaches historical high.
Overseas market, the March closure of the 580,000 mt capacity at the Mozal aluminum plant owned by South32 became the biggest supply-side catalyst during the holiday; combined with no hope for production resumptions under Europe's high electricity prices and delays in new Indonesian capacity, global aluminum supply flexibility further contracted. Domestically, aluminum projects steadily ramped up production, but overall February production declined MoM from January due to fewer natural days in February. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory is expected to continue building up, with SMM forecasting post-Chinese New Year (February 24) inventory to reach around 1.2 million mt, nearing the 2023 historical high of 1.267 million mt; month-end February inventory is expected to reach 1.3 million mt.
SMM Survey Exclusive:
Indonesian Market: Policy and Quotas Drive Dual Momentum, Indonesian Aluminum Prices Remain Stable During Chinese New Year
During the 2026 Chinese New Year period, the Indonesian aluminum market continued normal operations. This has been confirmed by multiple industry insiders, who indicated that production activities were unaffected throughout the holiday.
Additionally, during the Chinese New Year, the Director General of the National Export Development Agency, Fajarini Puntodewi, received a delegation from the Indonesian Aluminum Association (GALUNESIA) at the Ministry of Trade office. The meeting was held to build synergy between the government and industry stakeholders, aiming to boost Indonesia's aluminum export performance.
Price-wise, Indonesian bauxite prices remained stable and controllable, at approximately $28-32/mt. According to industry sources, this stability is attributed to the fact that the 2026 bauxite RKAB has not yet been publicly disclosed. Consequently, given the uncertainty surrounding quota allocation, bauxite producers have been cautious when signing contracts with alumina refineries. They are concerned that their RKAB quotas might be reduced, or that the total 2026 bauxite RKAB quota may be lower than that of 2025, which could cause them to miss potential price increases. In response, market participants currently prefer signing short-term contracts while awaiting the announcement of the 2026 bauxite RKAB quotas.
Influenced by ample overseas downstream inventory and sluggish alumina exports during the Chinese New Year, Indonesian alumina FOB prices have remained stable in recent weeks, at around $308/mt.
Bauxite Market: Post-Holiday Bauxite Market in the Doldrums, Decline in Buyer Intention Prices Drags Down Imported Ore Prices
Ore side: As of February 23, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at 61.33, down $0.16/mt compared to the last trading day before the holiday (February 13), primarily due to a further decline in buyer transaction intention prices; the SMM Guinea FOB average price was reported at $37/mt, down $1/mt from pre-holiday levels; the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was reported at $60/mt, down $0.5/mt from pre-holiday levels; the SMM Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at $58.5/mt, down $1/mt from pre-holiday levels; the SMM Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at $55.5/mt, down $0.5/mt from pre-holiday levels. Although Australian ore was affected by the rainy season, no actual transactions have occurred yet, and offers are scarce, but buyers reported lower transaction intention prices; the Malaysia bauxite CIF average price was reported at $47/mt, unchanged from the last trading day before the holiday; the Malaysia bauxite CIF (washed) average price was reported at $59/mt, down $0.5/mt from pre-holiday levels; the Ghana bauxite CIF price was reported at $73/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was reported at $71.5/mt, unchanged from last Friday. Currently, domestic bauxite supply is relatively ample, and prices are mainly operating steadily. For domestic ore, although the Guizhou region was affected by heavy rain and strong winds during the Chinese New Year, no impacts on mining and shipments from mines in the region have been inquired so far; SMM will continue to track the production and shipment situation of domestic ore in the Guizhou region. According to SMM surveys, domestic bauxite supply was ample during the Chinese New Year period, with inventory at alumina refineries all maintained above safe levels. Purchase willingness from alumina refineries is weak, and prices are expected to have some further downside room. For imported ore, no transactions for imported ore were inquired during the Chinese New Year period. However, against the backdrop of declining ore prices, purchase willingness for bauxite from alumina refineries remains weak. With absolute inventory at high levels, procurement demand is weak, and imported ore prices are under pressure. SMM will continue to monitor production at domestic and overseas mines, port shipments, and price trends.
Alumina Market: Domestic and Overseas Markets Resonate to Maintain Stability, Alumina Performs Well During the Holiday
During the recent Chinese New Year holiday, the alumina market as a whole showed a stable operating trend, with no significant fluctuations in either price or supply and demand. Domestically, alumina production activities did not pause due to the holiday and continued at the normal pace before the festival. Most producers maintained continuous production according to their established plans, with stable line operations and high operating rates, ensuring ample market supply. Meanwhile, logistics and transportation were largely smooth, with close coordination between upstream and downstream, maintaining orderly operations without any supply interruptions or stockpiling due to the holiday.
In the overseas market, alumina trading activities were relatively sluggish, with no large-scale transactions recorded during the holiday. The overall sentiment was cautious. Affected by international holidays and some market participants being on leave, spot market activity decreased, and the price difference between buyers and sellers remained relatively small, keeping the price trend stable. Overall, both domestically and overseas, the alumina market during the Chinese New Year exhibited a feature of mild supply and demand but stable operation, laying a relatively stable foundation for the post-holiday market.
Secondary Aluminum Alloy Market: Gradual Recovery in Supply and Demand, Post-Holiday Secondary Aluminum Market Expected to Continue Sideways Movement
Following the end of the Chinese New Year holiday, the secondary aluminum alloy market will gradually transition from the pre-holiday state of "weak supply and demand, stable prices" to a phase where the pace of resuming production and demand recovery will be in play. As the shutdown period for secondary aluminum plants this year was slightly longer than last year, most enterprises are expected to resume operations between the 8th and 15th day of the first lunar month. The release of supply in the first week after the holiday is expected to be slow, providing a temporary floor for prices. However, the recovery in demand is likely to be gradual, with downstream purchases remaining cautious and based on actual needs until terminal orders show a significant increase. On the cost side, it is necessary to continuously monitor the price fluctuations of aluminum scrap, copper, silicon, and other auxiliary materials. The trend of primary aluminum remains a key variable influencing market sentiment and the price center. In summary, the ADC12 price is likely to continue the sideways movement pattern seen before the holiday in the early post-holiday period. The subsequent direction will depend on the match between supply and demand after full production resumption and the performance of primary aluminum. If there is a phased restocking combined with a strong primary aluminum market, there is room for price recovery; otherwise, prices may face slight pressure but will still mainly move sideways.
Auxiliary Material Market: Downstream Restocking Boosts Raw Materials, Aluminum Auxiliary Materials Remain Generally Stable
Around the Chinese New Year holiday, prices of aluminum auxiliary materials remained stable with no significant fluctuations. After the holiday, downstream enterprises engaged in stockpiling and restocking, providing noticeable support for the prices of key raw materials for prebaked anodes, namely petroleum coke and coal tar pitch. Cost side, the support for prebaked anodes strengthened significantly. Post-holiday, aluminum fluoride was underpinned by mild restocking in aluminum, export support, and high costs, but ample domestic inventory and cautious purchasing limited price increases, resulting in stable, limited fluctuations.
Overall, macro perspective, the positive and mild signals from the US-China leaders' call have temporarily eased market tensions regarding trade friction expectations, improving risk appetite. The steady progress in the Eurozone's economic recovery has partially offset the pressure from the US's temporary economic weakness, presenting a generally neutral-to-positive global macro environment that offers a relatively stable external backdrop for commodity markets. Seasonal fundamental weaknesses are becoming more pronounced. Supply side, domestic and overseas aluminum new projects are gradually ramping up production. Demand side, the pace of downstream enterprises' post-holiday resumption requires attention. Currently, under the influence of seasonal supply exceeding demand, the market widely expects post-holiday inventory peaks to reach 1.3 million mt, a five-year high, which will be the core factor suppressing prices. Overall, post-holiday, aluminum prices are expected to show a pattern of initial decline followed by an increase in the short term. SHFE aluminum is anticipated to maintain a fluctuating trend, with a trading range of 22,800-24,000 yuan/mt. LME aluminum is expected to trade between $3,080/mt and $3,180/mt.
