[SMM Analysis] Review of the Lithium Carbonate Market During the 2026 Chinese New Year Holiday and Post-Holiday Outlook

Around the Chinese New Year holiday, the lithium carbonate market exhibited a pattern of first declining then rising, with intensified volatility before the holiday. From late January to early February, prices came under pressure and declined, with battery-grade lithium carbonate dropping to a low of 134,500 yuan/mt. However, in the final week before the holiday, driven by improved macro sentiment and industrial capital flows, the futures market warmed up, and the most-traded contract once broke through the 150,000 yuan/mt level. During the Chinese New Year holiday, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was closed, and the spot market saw sluggish trading as logistics were largely halted.

Supply side, lithium chemical plants showed clear price-firming sentiment during the pre-holiday price decline phase, with a generally weak willingness to sell spot orders. Meanwhile, February coincided with a period of concentrated maintenance at upstream lithium chemical plants, and domestic lithium carbonate production is expected to drop about 15% MoM for the month. Demand side, downstream material plants entered a stockpiling cycle before the holiday, and purchase willingness significantly strengthened when prices fell to relatively low levels, with increased inquiry and trading activity.

Benefiting from the progress of downstream buying the dip, industry inventory structure underwent dynamic adjustments. As of February 12, 2026, the downstream inventory share in SMM's total lithium carbonate sample inventory rose to 43.2%, up nearly 2 percentage points from the previous week; meanwhile, upstream and other segment inventories saw pullbacks, down 7.8% and 4.4% WoW respectively. Overall inventory showed a downward trend, though the direction of inventory changes varied across segments.

Looking ahead, on the supply side, as lithium chemical plants complete maintenance and gradually resume production, coupled with new capacity coming online, domestic lithium carbonate production is expected to rebound gradually. On the demand side, from after the holiday to late February, downstream material plants will start the March stockpiling cycle and are expected to maintain a strategy of buying the dip. Under a pattern of simultaneous supply and demand growth, market competition may intensify.