Peru's Trapiche Copper Mine EIA Approved, Overnight LME Copper and SHFE Copper Both Rebounded [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Tuesday, March 17, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,751/mt and dipped to $12,743/mt at the start of the session. Copper prices then gradually moved higher and touched a high of $12,940/mt near the close, before finally settling at $12,918.5/mt, up 1.44%. Trading volume reached 19,700 lots, and open interest stood at 302,000 lots, down 5,166 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to short covering. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 100,020 yuan/mt and hit a low of 99,820 yuan/mt early in the session. It then fluctuated upward to 100,420 yuan/mt, followed by wide swings, and finally closed at 100,190 yuan/mt, up 0.58%. Trading volume reached 274,000 lots, and open interest stood at 190,000 lots, down 3,315 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to short covering.
[SMM Copper Morning Briefing] News:
(1) Peru’s environmental certification agency SENACE said the environmental impact assessment report for the Trapiche copper mine project of Buenaventura, one of the country’s largest miners, had been approved. The project is expected to attract investment of $3.4 billion. SENACE said the review of the detailed environmental impact assessment ensured that the project, located in the Apurimac region, would be developed in line with strict sustainability standards. SENACE emphasized that although approval of the environmental impact assessment report was an important step, it did not mean the company had been authorized to begin production. Before the company can start extracting ore, regulators in the South American country still need to issue other permits, including a construction permit. Buenaventura, which operates several gold and silver mines in Peru, said its executives expect the Trapiche copper mine to become one of Peru’s most important copper mine projects after it starts production in 2030. The company also holds a 20% stake in the Cerro Verde copper mine, one of Peru’s largest copper deposits. The Cerro Verde copper mine is currently operated by US-based Freeport McMoRan.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On March 16, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2603 contract were quoted at premiums of 20-200 yuan/mt, with the average quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt. During the day, the SHFE copper 2603 contract was on its last trading day. Under the SMM price assessment methodology for #1 copper cathode, SMM always quotes against the front-month contract. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2603 contract was basically traded at 98,640-99,510 yuan/mt, while the SHFE copper 2604 contract traded at 99,610-98,830 yuan/mt. The inter-month contango spread was between 270 yuan/mt and 170 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2604 contract was between a profit of 100 yuan/mt and 240 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, the Shanghai spot copper market will officially quote against the 2604 contract. From the market structure, the contango spread between the 2604 and 2605 contracts was at 110 yuan/mt-60 yuan/mt. Suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, and with the import window wide open, expectations for continued inflows of cargoes from outside China strengthened, putting spot premiums under pressure. Demand side, although copper prices pulled back below the 100,000 yuan/mt threshold again, procurement enthusiasm among downstream enterprises did not rise notably. Intraday trading was light, and at current price levels, end-users still maintained wait-and-see sentiment toward subsequent price trends, with purchases turning more cautious. Supply side, SMM recorded social inventory at 547,300 mt, down 26,600 mt from the previous period, but the absolute level remained high. Together with stronger import expectations, overall supply pressure still persisted. Overall, against the backdrop of completed contract rollover and stronger import expectations, Shanghai spot copper is expected to remain under pressure tomorrow, and discounts may widen further.
(2) Guangdong: On March 16, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, down 110 yuan/mt from last Friday; a discount of 10 yuan/mt for standard-quality copper, down 50 yuan/mt from last Friday; and a discount of 85 yuan/mt for SX-EW copper, down 85 yuan/mt from last Friday. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 98,955 yuan/mt, down 1,640 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 98,850 yuan/mt, down 1,625 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, market quotations were mixed on the contract rollover day, and overall trading was relatively muted.
(3) Imported copper: On March 16, the average warrant price was up $1/mt from the previous trading day at $46/mt (price range: $42-50/mt); the average B/L price was up $1/mt from the previous trading day at $45/mt (price range: $41-49/mt); and the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was up $2/mt from the previous trading day at $21/mt (price range: $17-25/mt), with quotations referring to cargoes scheduled to arrive from late March to mid-April.
(4) Secondary copper: As of 11:30 on March 16, the futures closing price was 99,050 yuan/mt, down 1,120 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premiums were 110 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On March 16, copper scrap prices fell 1,100 yuan/mt MoM, the sales sentiment index for copper scrap declined to 2.37, the procurement sentiment index declined to 2.44, and the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 589 yuan/mt, up 124 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 380 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, after copper prices pulled back, many suppliers of copper scrap were not in a hurry to sell their inventories and remained on the sidelines, expecting copper prices to rebound in the short term.
Prices: on the macro front, Trump called on the US Fed to cut interest rate urgently and predicted that oil prices would fall sharply after the end of the Iran war, while also hinting that action had already been taken against oil facilities on Khark Island; the US Treasury Secretary, meanwhile, said Iranian oil tankers were allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and that there had been no intervention in the oil market. Iran responded that, following military coordination, vessels from non-belligerent parties had resumed normal passage. As expectations for the end of the war gradually strengthened, the pullback in oil prices eased inflationary pressure, while the weaker US dollar index supported copper prices. Fundamentally, arrivals of both imported and domestic copper remained stable, and overall supply was steady; after copper prices corrected, downstream rigid demand was released at a faster pace, and consumption gradually recovered. As of March 16, SMM copper inventories across major regions nationwide fell 5.46% from last Monday, with the pace of destocking accelerating. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound upward today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]