Macro Uncertainty Persisted, and LME Zinc Maintained Wide Swings [SMM Morning Meeting Summary]

Futures: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,336.5/mt. In early trading, LME zinc fluctuated upward and touched an intraday high of $3,386/mt. Prices then pulled back to a low of $3,323.5/mt, before edging up slightly late in the session to close higher at $3,342/mt, up $16/mt, or 0.48%. Trading volume decreased to 98,167 lots, and open interest fell by 254 lots to 216,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2604 contract opened at 24,460 yuan/mt. In early trading, increased long positions pushed prices up to 24,500 yuan/mt. SHFE zinc then moved lower to a low of 24,385 yuan/mt. Late in the session, as longs reduced positions and exited, SHFE zinc edged down slightly, but still closed higher at 24,425 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt, or 0.04%. Trading volume shrank to 31,673 lots, and open interest increased by 433 lots to 75,180 lots.

Macro: Trump said there may be conditional negotiations with Iran; Iran’s foreign minister said the new supreme leader would not negotiate with the US; the US defense secretary said “maximum-intensity” strikes against Iran would be launched on Tuesday; the US special envoy said Putin denied providing Iran with intelligence on the US military; US media reported that the US asked Israel not to attack Iranian energy facilities; market sources said Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait may jointly cut production by as much as 6.7 million barrels per day; trilateral talks among the US, Russia, and Ukraine may be held in Türkiye next week; the National Computer Network Emergency Response Technical Team/Coordination Center of China issued a risk alert on the OpenClaw security application; in the first two months, China’s goods trade imports and exports grew 18.3%.

Spot:

Shanghai: Yesterday, refined zinc purchase sentiment in Shanghai was 2.04, and shipment sentiment was 2.61. There were relatively many traders making shipments in the Shanghai market. Zinc prices fluctuated on the futures market, and downstream enterprises had purchased cargo last week and currently held some raw material inventory. Purchase willingness was not high yesterday, overall spot transactions remained sluggish, and discounts stayed at low levels.

Guangdong: Refined zinc purchase sentiment in Guangdong was 2.03, and sales sentiment was 2.32. Overall, futures still fluctuated at highs yesterday, overall market transactions were mediocre, downstream buyers were mostly making just-in-time procurement, and spot premiums continued to fluctuate within a deep discount range.

Tianjin: Yesterday, refined zinc purchase sentiment in Tianjin was 2.24, and shipment sentiment was 2.36. Prices mainly fluctuated yesterday. Downstream players restocked as needed, and with most downstream enterprises having basically resumed work, market activity increased and there were more price-fixing transactions. Traders’ shipment premiums rose slightly, though overall market transactions remained relatively mediocre.

Ningbo: Zinc ingot supply in the market was ample. Yesterday, traders’ shipment quotes were basically stable, downstream enterprises had low willingness to purchase, and spot zinc ingot transactions in Ningbo were mediocre.

Inventory: As of March 10, LME zinc inventory increased by 4,150 mt to 98,950 mt, up 4.38%. As of March 9, domestic inventory continued to increase.

Zinc Price Forecast: Overnight, LME zinc recorded a bullish candlestick with a long upper shadow, with the upper Bollinger Bands limiting gains and the lower Bollinger Bands providing support. Yesterday, LME zinc rose as inflation concerns eased, but the market was weighing Trump's conflicting messages on Iran, the US dollar maintained a fluctuating trend, and LME zinc lacked upward momentum and pulled back. Overnight, the SHFE zinc 2604 contract recorded a small bearish candlestick, with the middle Bollinger Bands limiting gains and the lower Bollinger Bands providing support. Fundamentally, current domestic supply remained relatively loose, downstream consumption was in the process of gradually recovering, and there was still some macro uncertainty, so SHFE zinc maintained a fluctuating trend.

Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data was processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.