SMM News, March 20:
In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2604 contract rose and then pulled back before fluctuating rangebound. It opened at 95,300 yuan/mt, climbed after the open to a high of 96,230 yuan/mt, then pulled back and fluctuated between 95,500 yuan/mt and 95,900 yuan/mt, with a closing price of 95,850 yuan/mt. The Contango price spread between futures contracts of nearby months ranged from 50 yuan/mt to 0 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for the front-month SHFE copper contract ranged from a profit of 130 yuan/mt to a profit of 260 yuan/mt.
Intraday, sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 2.82, down 0.2 MoM, and purchasing sentiment was 2.8, down 0.14 MoM, . Early in the morning session, suppliers quoted standard-quality copper at discounts of 90 yuan/mt to parity, with JCC, Lufang, Xiangguang and others quoted at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to 30 yuan/mt, Zhongjin, Tiefeng, Zijin, OLYDA and others at discounts of 80 yuan/mt to 60 yuan/mt, and Jinguan, Jinxin, Jinfeng, Jintun PC and others at ex-works discounts of 20 yuan/mt to parity; high-quality copper such as Guixi, Jinchuan (plate), and Jintun plate was quoted at discounts of 10 yuan/mt to parity. In the second trading period, suppliers lowered prices slightly, with Lufang, Xiangguang, JCC and others quoted at discounts of 60 yuan/mt to 50 yuan/mt, Zhongjin, Zhongtiaoshan, Tiefeng, OLYDA and others successively traded at discounts of 90 yuan/mt to 80 yuan/mt, and Jinguan, Jinxin and others successively traded at discounts of 20 yuan/mt to parity.
Copper prices opened lower with a gap in yesterday’s night session, and some enterprises placed orders to restock at lower levels, lifting intraday procurement demand to some extent. However, considering that replenishment had already been concentrated on the previous day, actual incremental buying remained limited. According to data released by SHFE on March 19, SHFE copper warrants fell by 12,200 mt intraday, confirming that downstream enthusiasm for buying the dip increased after copper prices pulled back, and the center of spot premiums moved higher accordingly. From the market structure perspective, the import profit window widened slightly, and expectations for subsequent inflows of cargoes from outside China strengthened, which may put some pressure on the supply side. Overall, amid the game between accelerated destocking and supplier sell-offs, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain at current levels in the next trading day.
