SMM News, March 15:
Recently, petroleum coke prices overall continued to rise sharply. Since March, petroleum coke prices had kept climbing to high levels, driven by higher refinery costs as crude oil prices increased. From the second half of this week, downstream enterprises gradually developed fear of high prices, shipments at some refineries slowed down markedly, and quoted prices pulled back, leaving the market in a pattern of regional divergence and divergence between high- and low-sulphur petroleum coke. Specifically, this week, petroleum coke prices at CNOOC-affiliated refineries were raised sharply, with downstream anode material enterprises participating actively. Petroleum coke prices were raised by 150-330 yuan/mt, with current prices mainly at 4,700-4,880 yuan/mt. Under PetroChina, low-sulphur petroleum coke prices in north-east China were raised continuously, and after cumulative gains of 150-300 yuan/mt during the week, current prices were mainly at 4,386-5,081 yuan/mt. The 1# petroleum coke spot price index for north-east China tracked by SMM was reported at 4,729.59 yuan/mt, up 4.07% from last Friday. Medium-sulphur petroleum coke prices in north-west China held up well, with refinery petroleum coke prices raised by 100-200 yuan/mt. The 3# petroleum coke spot price index for north-west China tracked by SMM stood at 4,030.79 yuan/mt, up 3.69% from last Friday. Sinopec's petroleum coke segment overall showed a strong pattern of high operating rates, across-the-board price increases, and smooth shipments. In Shandong, petroleum coke shipments performed well, and petroleum coke prices mainly rose steadily, with refinery petroleum coke prices cumulatively raised by 200-270 yuan/mt. Among local refineries, shipment performance diverged: prices of medium- and low-sulphur petroleum coke rose steadily, while high-sulphur petroleum coke prices retreated after rapid rise. According to the latest SMM data, the 2# petroleum coke spot price index for Shandong was tracked at 4,077.32 yuan/mt, up 5.01% from last Friday; the 3# petroleum coke spot price index for Shandong was tracked at 3,651.33 yuan/mt, up 7.08% from last Friday; and the 4# petroleum coke spot price index for Shandong was tracked at 1,922.68 yuan/mt, down 5.59% from last Friday.
This week, trading sentiment in the imported petroleum coke market was average, with spot transactions mainly in small lots, while port spot prices mostly moved higher. By category, low-sulphur petroleum coke prices still held up well, but current spot prices were overall inflated, and downstream buyers showed weak willingness to sign orders, mainly staying on the sidelines. Prices of medium- and high-sulphur petroleum coke also maintained an upward trend, but downstream buyers mainly made just-in-time procurement. Although prices of some petroleum coke at local refineries pulled back during the week, port spot petroleum coke prices remained relatively firm, with no price cuts seen for the time being. Supply side, China’s petroleum coke supply contracted significantly this week from the previous period. During the week, Jiangsu Xinhai, Shandong Huaxiang, and Sinopec’s Tahe Petrochemical successively entered shutdown maintenance, while some refineries also proactively lowered operating loads due to rising costs, further tightening domestic supply. Meanwhile, the pace of port cargo pick-up for imported petroleum coke accelerated, spot inventory continued to decline, and overall market supply showed a downward trend. As the industry is about to enter the traditional peak maintenance season, petroleum coke supply is still expected to continue falling in the later period.
Demand side, rigid demand support, limited increment, and structural divergence were the core themes. Since March, overall demand in China’s carbon used in aluminum production industry has shown a mild rebound. As the key period for nationwide air pollution control ended, environmental protection-related controls were gradually relaxed, easing production constraints in traditional major carbon-producing regions such as Henan, Hebei, Shandong, and Shanxi. The operating rates of enterprises in calcined petroleum coke, prebaked anode, cathode carbon block, and other segments steadily increased, the pace of capacity release accelerated, and the industry as a whole returned to normal operations. Downstream aluminum operating rates remained at highs, providing rigid support for core carbon products such as prebaked anode and calcined petroleum coke, and overall petroleum coke demand continued to improve. However, affected by multiple factors including rising international oil prices, fluctuations in refinery operating rates, and tight arrivals of imported resources, petroleum coke prices continued to rise recently, and cost-side pressure was rapidly transmitted to the carbon segment. Facing raw material prices fluctuating at highs, carbon used in aluminum production enterprises became more cautious in procurement sentiment, fear of high prices rose markedly, willingness to restock proactively weakened, and the market’s wait-and-see mood intensified. At present, the procurement pace generally focused on meeting daily just-in-time procurement needs and making scattered purchases on demand, while bulk purchases and advance stockpiling decreased. Market transactions were mainly driven by long-term contract fulfillment and rigid-demand restocking, and overall trading became more rational. The anode material industry maintained good operating conditions, with orders rebounding steadily, forming rigid and continuous procurement for low-sulphur petroleum coke and supporting a relatively strong low-sulphur petroleum coke price trend.
Overall, supply in China’s petroleum coke market continued to tighten, while downstream demand remained generally stable with support, and supply and demand fundamentals provided two-way support to the market. Coupled with recent fluctuations in crude oil prices and intensified cost-side bargaining, SMM expected that in the short term, the petroleum coke market would mainly remain in consolidation, with prices of different categories continuing to diverge: low-sulphur petroleum coke prices are supported by tight supply and recovering downstream demand, and are generally stable with slight rise; medium- and high-sulphur petroleum coke prices mainly remain in consolidation, supported by just-in-time procurement from the carbon used in aluminum production industry.
