Chile’s Copper Ore Exports to China Fell in February; Overnight LME Copper and SHFE Copper Both Closed Lower [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

2026.3.6 Friday
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,960/mt. It fluctuated downward in early trading and dipped to $12,792/mt, after which the center of copper prices gradually moved higher and touched $12,966/mt. It then fluctuated downward and finally closed at $12,859/mt, down 1.29%. Trading volume rose to 27,900 lots, and open interest rose to 305,000 lots, down 953 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long position reductions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 100,440 yuan/mt. It fluctuated downward in early trading and bottomed at 100,030 yuan/mt, after which the center of copper prices moved straight up and climbed to 101,410 yuan/mt, finally closing at 100,980 yuan/mt, down 0.35%. Trading volume rose to 74,300 lots, and open interest rose to 195,000 lots, down 5,732 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long position reductions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) Data released by Chilean Customs showed that Chile’s copper exports in February were 169,646 mt, with 39,041 mt exported to China during the month. Chile’s exports of copper ore and concentrates in February were 1,169,562 mt, with 776,657 mt exported to China during the month. In February, Chile’s copper exports to China rebounded from low levels, but copper ore exports to China declined. Currently, domestic spot TC for copper concentrates remained at low levels, and trading in the copper ore market was still recovering after the holiday.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of March 5, the SHFE copper 2603 contract opened higher, pulled back, and then showed a fluctuating trend with wide swings. The opening price was 101,700 yuan/mt. After the open, prices touched 101,950 yuan/mt, then pulled back and dipped to 101,400 yuan/mt, after which they fluctuated widely between 101,400 yuan/mt and 101,800 yuan/mt, with the closing price at 101,420 yuan/mt. The inter-month contango price spread ranged between 350 yuan/mt and 200 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for the SHFE copper front-month contract ranged between a loss of 540 yuan/mt and 400 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, Shanghai spot copper discounts are expected to continue a steady recovery. From the market structure perspective, the inter-month C price spread continued to narrow slightly, and suppliers’ willingness to ship to delivery warehouses continued to decline. Supply side, domestic copper and previously price-locked imported cargoes continued to arrive, and with social inventory at high levels, overall circulating supply was ample. Demand side, downstream enterprises continued to advance the resumption of work and production, and with SHFE copper prices having pulled back recently, downstream purchase willingness to buy the dip increased, with order activity picking up, providing support for spot discounts. Overall, spot trading activity for Shanghai spot copper tomorrow is expected to remain stable.
(2) Guangdong: On March 5, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 0 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 260 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 101,450 yuan/mt, up 140 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,290 yuan/mt, down 135 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, downstream purchase willingness declined and suppliers struggled to hold prices firm, with overall trading weaker than yesterday.
(3) Imported copper: On March 5, the average warrant price was flat from the previous trading day; the average B/L price was flat from the previous trading day, and the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was flat from the previous trading day. Quotes referred to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late March.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on March 5, the futures closing price was 101,420 yuan/mt, down 430 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premiums were -105 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On March 5, copper scrap prices rose 500 yuan/mt MoM; the average Guangdong bare bright copper price was 90,800 yuan/mt, up 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,535 yuan/mt, down 939 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 180 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, after scrap utilization enterprises resumed procurement this week, they only sought tax-included copper scrap; the invoice tax rate climbed from 9.1%-9.3% before the Lunar New Year to 10.%-10.2%. Tax-included copper scrap prices rose steadily due to the invoice tax rate, narrowing the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap.
Prices: On the macro front, Iran said it was willing to abandon its nuclear plan in exchange for a “satisfactory alternative” from the US, while also cracking down on separatist forces domestically; meanwhile, the US military was reported to have begun preparations for actions against Iran lasting through September. The Trump side explicitly opposed Khamenei’s son succeeding as Supreme Leader and encouraged the Kurds to pressure Iran, saying that although Iran tried to seek an agreement, it had missed its chance. The escalation in the Middle East again pushed risk-off sentiment higher, the US dollar index strengthened again, and this was bearish for copper prices. Fundamentals: On the supply side, with imported cargoes continuing to arrive, overall market circulation was ample; on the demand side, as downstream enterprises fully resumed work and production, coupled with the pullback in copper prices, the recovery in consumption continued. Inventory: As of March 5, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide increased 8.56% WoW from last Thursday. Overall, macro front bearish pressure and the recovery in consumption on the fundamentals side were in a tug-of-war, and copper prices were expected to fluctuate rangebound today.
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