Analysis: With the End of Chinese New Year, How Will Primary Lead Enterprises' Production Fare in March?

SMM reported on March 2nd: Due to the impact of the Chinese New Year holiday and smelter maintenance, the national production of primary lead in February 2026 declined as expected, down 17.07% MoM and 1.21% YoY. The cumulative production of electrolytic lead from January to February 2026 increased by 8.39% YoY.

It is understood that February coincided with the Chinese New Year holiday, during which some electrolytic lead smelters took the opportunity to conduct equipment maintenance or take a break, becoming the main factor for the decline in February's lead production. During this period, small and medium-sized smelters in Hunan and Yunnan generally reduced output, with some enterprises' maintenance plans extending into March. Additionally, at the beginning of February, precious metal prices fell, leading to an increase in risk aversion sentiment among lead smelters. They adjusted their use of high-grade ore to low-grade ore, reducing the output of lead ingots and silver, a by-product of lead smelting. Thus, even though medium and large smelters in Guangdong and Jiangxi resumed production after maintenance, it did not reverse the downward trend in monthly production.

Looking ahead to March, with the removal of the Chinese New Year holiday factor and the return to a normal working month of 31 days, the production of lead smelters is expected to increase. At the same time, most smelters that underwent maintenance or took a break during the Chinese New Year are gradually resuming operations, such as those in Henan, Yunnan, and Hunan, which will boost the rebound in March's electrolytic lead production and offset the decline in February. Moreover, at the beginning of March, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated, causing precious metal prices to rise again, including the price of silver, a by-product of lead smelting. This may indirectly stimulate the production enthusiasm of smelters. SMM expects the production of electrolytic lead in March to increase by over 18% MoM.

Data Source Statement: Apart from publicly available information, other data is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.