Zambian Road Disruption Hinders Congo Ore Exports LME and SHFE Copper Both Close Lower [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

March 3, 2026 Tuesday
Futures: LME copper opened and peaked at $13,390/mt overnight, then the center of copper prices gradually moved downward, reaching as low as $13,072/mt near the end of the session. It finally closed at $13,084.5/mt, down 1.59%. Trading volume reached 27,800 lots, with open interest at 312,000 lots, a decrease of 3,474 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to the reduction in long positions. The most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 103,320 yuan/mt, initially peaking at 103,630 yuan/mt. Copper prices then fluctuated downward, hitting a low of 102,250 yuan/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at 102,280 yuan/mt, down 1.23%. Trading volume reached 69,800 lots, with open interest at 199,000 lots, a decrease of 979 lots from the previous trading day, also mainly due to the reduction in long positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) On March 2 (Monday), Zambia's infrastructure minister said that the main export route for copper, cobalt, and other minerals from the DRC, which was disrupted due to road damage, is expected to reopen on Tuesday. The DRC is Africa's largest copper producer and the world's second-largest, and it is also the world's primary supplier of cobalt, accounting for over 70% of global production, with most of the cobalt exported along with other key battery minerals. Kasumbalesa, the busiest transit point for Congolese metal shipments (mainly to China and the US), suspended traffic on Sunday after heavy rains damaged part of the road. So far, no mining company has reported any disruption to the transport of copper or cobalt.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On March 2, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the 2603 contract ranged from a discount of 290 yuan/mt to a discount of 90 yuan/mt, averaging a discount of 190 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of SMM #1 copper cathode was 102,250 yuan/mt. In the morning, the SHFE copper 2603 contract first fell and then rose, opening at 103,390 yuan/mt, falling to 102,310 yuan/mt, and then rebounding to 102,910 yuan/mt, fluctuating between 102,700 yuan/mt and 102,900 yuan/mt, closing at 102,850 yuan/mt. The contango spread between the current and next month contracts was between 470 yuan/mt and 330 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for SHFE copper was in a loss range of 900 yuan/mt to 700 yuan/mt. Looking ahead, spot discounts are expected to remain under pressure. Although spot discounts improved slightly yesterday, the overall market remains constrained by continuous supply increases. Some suppliers showed a strong intention to hold prices firm in the morning, with high-quality and some standard-quality copper quotes relatively stable, but actual transactions were sluggish. In the second half of the session, some suppliers began to offload their stocks, with brands like Tiefeng quoting a discount of 300 yuan/mt, pulling down the overall price of standard-quality copper, indicating that supply pressure remains the dominant factor. From a structural perspective, the high contango spread between the current and next month contracts continues to encourage suppliers to ship to delivery warehouses, further diverting spot liquidity. Additionally, both imported and domestically produced copper continue to arrive, with OLYDA and other sources already seen in the market, continuously supplementing the supply. On the demand side, although the resumption of work is ongoing, the pace of recovery remains slow, and high copper prices make it difficult to provide effective support for discounts. Overall, the continuous increase in supply continues to suppress demand recovery, and the oversupply situation in the spot market remains unchanged.
(2) Guangdong: On March 2, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was traded at a discount of 230 yuan/mt to a discount of 30 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average discount of 130 yuan/mt, up 55 yuan/mt from yesterday; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 310 yuan/mt to a discount of 270 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 290 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 101,955 yuan/mt, down 230 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,795 yuan/mt, down 245 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, downstream procurement volumes continued to increase while the growth rate of inventories slowed down, stimulating spot premiums to rise continuously.
(3) Imported copper: On March 2, warrant prices ranged from $45/mt to $55/mt, with QP in March, and the average price remained unchanged from the previous trading day; B/L prices ranged from $42/mt to $52/mt, with QP in March, and the average price remained unchanged from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) ranged from $15/mt to $23/mt, with QP in March, and the average price remained unchanged from the previous trading day. Quotations referenced cargo arrivals in late February and early March.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on March 2, the futures closing price was 102,850 yuan/mt, up 670 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, with an average spot premiums/discounts of -190 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On March 2, the price of secondary copper raw materials rose by 800 yuan/mt MoM. The average price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 91,100 yuan/mt, up 800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, with a price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap of 2,550 yuan/mt, down 139 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,285 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, as the Lantern Festival approaches, many workers at secondary copper rod enterprises have gradually returned to their posts, and these enterprises are also preparing for raw material procurement for production resumptions. However, given the high copper prices and unclear policies, raw material procurement by secondary copper enterprises has been lackluster, and the transaction status in the secondary copper raw material market has been average.
Price: On the macro front, the US-Iran situation continues to deteriorate, with divergent statements emerging within the US, escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, boosting market risk aversion sentiment, and strengthening the US dollar index, posing a bearish impact on copper prices. On the fundamental front, imported supplies continue to replenish, and domestic copper arrives as usual, resulting in an overall loose supply; on the demand side, downstream enterprises gradually resume work, driving consumption to recover, but the recovery pace remains slow. In terms of inventory, as of March 2, SMM's domestic copper inventories increased by 5.3% WoW from last Thursday. In terms of inventory, as of March 2, SMM's domestic copper inventories increased by 5.3% WoW from last Thursday. Overall, copper prices are expected to be dragged down by macro and funding factors in the short term, but with the slow recovery of downstream resumption of work and the gradual release of rigid demand, copper prices are expected to find support at the bottom today.
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