[SMM Analysis] Titanium Dioxide Prices Rise Post-Holiday, Geopolitical Risks Cloud Export Outlook

Cost, Demand, and Supply Resonate, Titanium Dioxide Sees Post-Holiday Price Hikes

As of March 3, SMM data showed that domestic titanium dioxide prices were stable with an upward trend. Among them, the price of anatase titanium dioxide was quoted at 12,100-12,500 yuan/mt, with an average of 12,300 yuan/mt; the price of rutile titanium dioxide was quoted at 12,800-14,500 yuan/mt, with an average of 13,650 yuan/mt; the price of chloride process titanium dioxide was quoted at 14,000-17,200 yuan/mt, with an average of 15,600 yuan/mt.

After the Chinese New Year holiday, the titanium dioxide market regained momentum. In the week following the holiday, several chloride process enterprises first issued price adjustment letters, leading the gains in March orders; subsequently, from last Saturday to this Tuesday, many sulphuric acid process titanium dioxide enterprises also followed up by issuing price increase letters, raising their quotes, sparking a wave of price hikes in the industry post-holiday.

SMM analysis indicated that this round of price increases was mainly driven by three factors: First, cost support strengthened, as the current high prices of sulphuric acid kept raw material costs elevated, and the industry generally faced losses pressure in H2 2025; second, demand showed a positive recovery, with domestic trade orders steadily increasing and foreign trade orders recovering since November 2025, signaling a positive release from the demand side; third, supply tightened, as some outdated capacity was gradually phased out, optimizing the industry's capacity structure, and concentrated factory maintenance during the Chinese New Year period led to low inventory levels overall.

In summary, under the multiple favorable conditions of cost support, demand recovery, and supply tightening, titanium dioxide enterprises took advantage of the March order window to raise their quotes, laying a solid foundation for the 2026 titanium dioxide market. 

Geopolitical Conflicts Disrupt Ocean Shipping, Titanium Dioxide Foreign Trade Faces Early Year Challenges

On February 28, the US and Israel launched a joint military strike against Iran, suddenly escalating geopolitical tensions, further intensifying the uncertainty of the global supply chain, potentially causing significant disruptions to the titanium dioxide foreign trade market that had been gradually recovering since the beginning of the year.

According to the SMM survey, the escalation of the conflict has led to increased volatility in the shipping market: some routes in the Middle East have suspended operations, with ocean freight rates surging dramatically; in India, affected by the disruption of the Persian Gulf route, ocean freight rates doubled over three consecutive days; although the overall impact on the European market was relatively limited, ocean freight prices also showed an upward trend.

In terms of export structure, China's titanium dioxide market is highly dependent on overseas markets. Customs data shows that in 2025, China's total titanium dioxide exports reached 1.908 million mt, with Europe accounting for 17% (325,000 mt), the Middle East 17% (320,000 mt), and the Indian market 13.5% (257,000 mt). These regions collectively account for nearly half of the total export volume, and the transportation disruptions caused by the geopolitical conflicts have already had a substantial impact on the related markets.

The current foreign trade market faces dual uncertainties: first, the sharp rise in ocean shipping costs, leading to delays in some shipments, putting cost side pressure on exporters and agents; second, although India canceled anti-dumping duties on Chinese titanium dioxide starting from October 2025, short-term fluctuations in shipping capacity may interfere with the pace of new orders. Overall, the post-holiday recovery process of the foreign trade market is encountering significant external resistance.

Looking ahead, whether domestic titanium dioxide price increases can truly materialize will depend on observing the downstream resumption pace in March and the follow-up of new orders. In terms of foreign trade, it is necessary to closely monitor the duration of the impact of geopolitical conflicts on ocean shipping and freight rates, as well as the order recovery pace in key markets such as India and the Middle East.