How Will the Israel-Iran Conflict Affect Zinc Concentrates?

SMM Feb 28 News:

On February 28, Israeli Air Force fighter jets crossed thousands of kilometers of airspace to conduct a daylight precision strike on the center of Tehran, Iran's capital, drawing significant market attention. How will this conflict impact zinc concentrates?

According to SMM, Iran's main lead and zinc mines are the Angouran Lead-Zinc Mine and the Mehdiabad Lead-Zinc Mine. In recent years, Iran's zinc concentrate production has been around 200,000 mt in metal content. From a global perspective, Iran's zinc concentrate production accounted for less than 2% of the global total in 2025. Although Mehdiabad Lead-Zinc Mine began gradually releasing capacity last year, with the first phase expected to produce about 200,000 mt of zinc concentrates annually, and subsequent capacity releases could double production, the overall base is relatively small. SMM expects that Iran's production share in the global total from 2026-2030 will remain limited.

From a trade perspective, according to data from China's General Administration of Customs, China imported approximately 86,000 mt in physical content of Iranian zinc concentrates in 2025, accounting for 1.62% of total imports. As one of China's sources of zinc concentrate imports, Iran has attracted more attention in recent years due to the new capacity release at the Mehdiabad Lead-Zinc Mine. If geopolitical conflicts persist, Iran's zinc concentrate exports may be affected to some extent.

Overall, although Iran's zinc concentrate production has a relatively small impact on global output, the rapid expansion of China's smelting capacity in recent years, coupled with a noticeable pullback in overseas zinc concentrate growth YoY in 2026, means that China's zinc concentrate supply, excluding Huoshaoyun, will see limited increases. China is expected to face a slight shortage of zinc concentrates in 2026. If Iran's zinc concentrate exports significantly decrease, it could exacerbate the shortage of zinc concentrates in China this year.

(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Customers should make cautious decisions and should not replace their independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by customers are not related to SMM.)