Aluminum Prices Fluctuate Sharply, Strong Wait-and-See Sentiment in the Market [SMM Spot Aluminum Midday Review]

SMM, March 9:

SHFE aluminum 2602 rose in early trading before retreating, with the price center significantly higher than the previous trading day. Today, amid heightened futures fluctuations, the market saw a strong wait-and-see sentiment and weaker buying sentiment. Mainstream quotations and transaction prices were concentrated at a discount of 20 yuan/mt to the average price. The east China shipments sentiment index was 3.22, up 0.11 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 2.49, down 0.27 MoM.

Aluminum prices rebounded sharply, while trading activity in the central China market was lackluster. Traders and downstream processing enterprises were mostly in wait-and-see mode, with relatively subdued buying sentiment. Suppliers also showed weak willingness to hold prices firm, tending to ship moderate volumes on rallies. As a result, overall transaction prices in central China were concentrated from parity with the central China price to a discount of 30 yuan against the central China price, and the downward trend remained inconspicuous. The central China shipments sentiment index was 2.7, up 0.04 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 2.4, down 0.01 MoM.

Inventory side, mainstream consumption-area aluminum ingot inventory increased 11,000 mt MoM today, with the inventory buildup mainly coming from Wuxi and Guangdong. In the short term, aluminum ingot inventory continued its post–Chinese New Year seasonal inventory buildup. Influenced by bullish sentiment, premiums were expected to remain on a narrowing trend.