Most-Traded BC Copper Contract Closed Down 0.16% as Inflation Concerns and High Inventories Weighed on Prices [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2604 contract opened at 90,100 yuan/mt. Early in the session, the center maintained a fluctuating downward trend and hit bottom at 88,740 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward to a high of 90,860 yuan/mt. After the afternoon open, the center fell, and it finally closed at 89,670 yuan/mt, down 0.16%. Open interest rose to 6,128 lots, up 232 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume rose to 6,338 lots, down 2,507 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, market concerns that tensions in the Middle East would further push up inflation expectations drove the US dollar index to close higher, weighing on copper prices. High inflation expectations in the US weakened market expectations for further US Fed interest rate cuts, also weighing on copper prices. In addition, global copper visible inventory continued to build up, further dragging on copper prices. Fundamentals, as imported supplies continued to arrive, overall market circulating supply remained ample. Demand side, downstream enterprises had resumed work and production, and with the pullback in copper prices, consumption continued to recover. Inventory, as of Thursday, March 5, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide rose 8.56% WoW from last Thursday.

The SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 101,080 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract at 89,670 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 101,327 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2604 contract and BC copper was -247 yuan/mt. The spread remained in backwardation and widened from the previous day.