[SMM Analysis] Cobalt Market Exhibits Mixed Performance Amid Ongoing Supply and Demand Tensions

Refined Cobalt:
This week, the spot price of refined cobalt fluctuated around 430,000 yuan/mt. Supply side, mainstream smelters slightly raised ex-factory prices, while traders’ spot-futures price spread quotes remained stable. For conventional brands, discounts were 2,000 yuan/mt to parity; affected by smelters’ ex-factory price hikes, premiums for high-end brands were raised to 5,000-8,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream cost pass-through was hindered, and most buyers stayed on the sidelines; only a small number made just-in-time procurement to restock, and actual transactions still failed to expand in volume. Fundamentally, there was still no clear period for cobalt intermediate products arrivals, and the structurally tight raw material situation remained unchanged, providing support for cobalt prices. Looking ahead, as restocking demand is gradually released, refined cobalt prices are still expected to have upside room.

Cobalt Intermediate Products:
This week, cobalt intermediate product prices continued to hold steady. In terms of supply, miners’ export progress was relatively slow, and holders continued to temporarily withhold quotes. Demand side, smelters’ raw material shortages became more pronounced; purchase willingness existed, but constrained by unstable supply and unclear downstream orders, both procurement and sales were cautious, and the market continued to see “prices without transactions.” Overall, export delays cast doubt on the timing of large-scale arrivals, and the structurally tight domestic raw material situation may intensify. Once downstream orders become clear and procurement starts, intermediate product prices will still have upward momentum. Going forward, attention should be paid to export progress in the DRC and the pace of demand recovery.

Cobalt Sulphate:
This week, the spot price of cobalt sulphate edged down, with a divergent market. In terms of supply, supported by tight raw materials, most smelters kept quotes within the 95,000-98,000 yuan/mt range. However, some small smelters and traders faced pressure to recover cash and shipped at relatively low prices; transaction prices for some lower-quality cargoes fell to below 94,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream enterprises’ orders remained uncertain, and most maintained a wait-and-see stance; active stockpiling willingness after the holiday had yet to emerge, with only a small number of enterprises making just-in-time procurement and prioritizing low-priced cargoes in the market. Overall, in the short term, the market may be in a volatile adjustment phase of digesting social inventory. However, against the backdrop of unresolved raw material supply issues in the DRC, a phased tightening of domestic supply, and continued support from raw material costs, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to regain an upward trend after low-priced inventory is gradually depleted.