Chinese New Year Holiday Approaches, Brass Billet Operating Rate Pulls Back MoM

[SHFE Copper Spot] Looking ahead to the post-holiday period, as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, market participation continues to decline, with most suppliers and downstream enterprises gradually entering a holiday state, leading to a sluggish overall trading atmosphere during the day. On the supply side, the price-locked imports that were secured when the import window was open are continuously arriving, resulting in a significant inventory buildup in the Shanghai area. On the demand side, due to the approaching holiday, most downstream enterprises have already taken leave, causing procurement demand to weaken continuously. Additionally, February 24 is the last trading day for the SHFE copper 2602 contract, and many suppliers choose to hold their positions through the holiday, awaiting delivery. Some suppliers have already started tentatively quoting around parity for the SHFE copper 2603 contract, and it is expected that on the first trading day after the holiday, spot copper premiums over the SHFE 2603 contract will be quoted high but trade lower. It is worth noting that although some warrant cargoes will be locked up for delivery, the imported cargoes arriving before and during the holiday may impact spot transactions. On the first trading day after the holiday, since SMM always quotes the front-month contract, it is expected to show a high premium over the front month based on the price spread conversion, but this is expected to be corrected by the second trading day. Overall, spot premiums and discounts remain under pressure.

On February 12, COMEX copper inventories decreased by 2,011 short tons to 590,525 short tons.