In February, the Proportion of Liquid Aluminum Declined in Line With Expectations, and a Rebound Is Expected in March [SMM Analysis]

SMM February 28 News:

According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in February 2026 (28 calendar days) increased 2.1% YoY, but decreased 8.9% MoM.

Affected by the Chinese New Year holiday, the overall operating rate of downstream industries was low during the month, and the proportion of liquid aluminum also saw a significant pullback, dropping 7.7 percentage points MoM to 64.4%, in line with expectations at the beginning of the month. The main reasons were that demand had not yet recovered amid the off-season, coupled with some downstream enterprises halting production for the Chinese New Year holiday. Based on SMM's proportion of liquid aluminum data, domestic aluminum casting ingot volume in February increased 25.8% YoY and 16.2% MoM.

Capacity Changes: As of the end of February, SMM statistics showed domestic existing aluminum capacity was approximately 46.209 million mt, and domestic operating aluminum capacity was approximately 45.109 million mt.

Production Forecast: Entering March 2026, with the restoration of calendar days, aluminum production is expected to rebound MoM. Regarding the proportion of liquid aluminum, as downstream enterprises gradually resume work after the Chinese New Year, raw material demand is strengthening step by step. The proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to rise significantly. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminum is projected to increase 9.2 percentage points to 73.5%.

[Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]

Data Source: SMM