SMM February 27:
SHFE aluminum 2602 fluctuated downward in the morning session, with the price center lower than the previous trading day. Affected by the decline in aluminum prices, the spot-futures price spread, and the price spread between futures contracts, spot premiums/discounts in the market moved higher. Mainstream quotations were concentrated at the average price to 20 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 2.89, up 0.08 WoW; the buying sentiment index was 2.73, up 0.03 WoW. SMM A00 aluminum was quoted at 23,410 yuan/mt, down 110 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 170 yuan/mt against the 2603 contract, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
In the initial resumption period after the Chinese New Year break, orders at downstream processing enterprises had not fully recovered, and pre-holiday inventory buildup was not fully consumed, leading to low restocking willingness. However, the aluminum price correction still prompted some processing enterprises and traders to conduct slight restocking, and overall purchasing sentiment rebounded. The actual transaction price in the central China market finally ranged from a premium of 10 yuan to a discount of 20 yuan against the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.61, up 0.01 WoW; the buying sentiment index was 2.23, up 0.13 WoW. SMM central China closed at 23,290 yuan/mt, down 120 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 290 yuan/mt against the 2603 contract, flat from the previous trading day. The Henan-Shanghai price spread was -120 yuan/mt, widening by 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased by 16,000 mt WoW. Affected by the downstream Chinese New Year break, all three regions showed inventory buildup. In the short term, aluminum ingot inventory continued its seasonal buildup after the Chinese New Year, and spot premiums/discounts are expected to remain under pressure.
