A Strong US Dollar Combined With Firm Hawkish Signals Drove Tin Prices Down Below the 350,000-yuan Mark [SMM Tin Futures Brief Review]

On March 19, 2026, SHFE and LME both came under pressure. The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 345,730 yuan/mt, down 6.61%, falling below the key 350,000 yuan mark during the session. LME three-month tin was last reported at $42,800/mt, down 5.61%.

Sentiment side, in the early hours of March 19 Beijing time, the US Fed announced that it kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, in line with market expectations. This marked the second consecutive pause in cutting interest rates by the US Fed. The policy statement newly added wording that "developments in the Middle East situation carry uncertainty for the economy," acknowledging that oil price fluctuations may keep inflation persistently above the 2% target. The dot plot showed that Fed officials expected only one interest rate cut this year and another in 2027, with the exact timing unclear. Among the 19 FOMC members, 7 expected no interest rate cut this year, an increase of 1 from last December.

Fed Chairman Powell then released a hawkish signal, stating clearly that inflation remained sticky and uncertainty over the outlook had increased, and that interest rate cuts would not be considered until further improvement in inflation was seen; the committee had already begun discussing "whether the next step could be a rate hike," although this was not yet the baseline assumption of most officials. Affected by this, the three major US stock indexes fell sharply across the board, while the US dollar remained strong, continuing to pressure non-ferrous metals priced in US dollars.

Although the market had already largely expected no interest rate cut in March, with funds positioned in advance, confirmation of the news and the signal of a persistently strong US dollar substantially weakened market support, and after a stalemate, futures fell rapidly this afternoon.

Since December 2025, the market had remained cautious amid continued price rises, with limited follow-up. Later, prices hovered at high levels, further suppressing market transactions. Recently, as prices declined, downstream enterprises mostly followed on dips. However, according to current market feedback, cargo circulation remained limited, and continued attention should be paid to subsequent delivery inventory flows. End-user side, the market had recovered somewhat from the previous two months. However, the semiconductor industry's operating rate was already at a relatively high level, while China PV market was constrained by policy, leaving limited upward support from demand side at present. Continued attention should be paid to demand digestion and the frequency of updates.

Short term, after the continued decline, tin prices may enter a rangebound phase, with the center likely to consolidate on the stronger side for a short period. From a long-term perspective, downstream development in the tin market remained positive, and with limited new mine projects coming into production globally, the tin price center may show a stepwise upward pattern. Continued attention should be paid to the recovery of market demand, the pace of inventory flows, and changes in macro policies.