Supply Constraints and Increased Demand Continued to Drive Down Inventory, Spot Premiums Are Expected to Remain Firm Next Week [SMM South China Spot Copper Cathode Weekly Review]

SMM News, March 26:

Guangdong: This week, premiums in the region bottomed out and then rebounded. At the beginning of the week, suppliers actively cut prices to make shipments, dragging premiums lower. As copper prices pulled back, downstream procurement increased and inventory fell sharply, prompting suppliers to hold prices firm and bringing spot cargo back into premium territory. As of Thursday, both high-quality copper and standard-quality copper had turned to premiums, with high-quality copper quoted at 120 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt WoW; standard-quality copper at a premium of 20 yuan/mt, flat WoW; and SX-EW copper at a discount of 40 yuan/mt, unchanged WoW. On Thursday, the price spread in standard-quality copper premiums between Shanghai and Guangdong stood at Guangdong being 150 yuan/mt higher. The price difference was relatively small, and there was no cross-region cargo transfer. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses stood at 61,600 mt, down 19,500 mt WoW and down 35,700 mt from the yearly high, while warrants totaled 36,000 mt, down 7,300 mt WoW. Specifically, warehouse arrivals this week were 9,000 mt/week, down 4,000 mt/week from last week and far below the annual average level of 14,000 mt/week. Affected by maintenance at nearby smelters, arrivals of domestic copper fell significantly, while replenishment from imported copper was also limited. Warehouse withdrawals were 30,000 mt/week, up 8,300 mt/week from last week and far above the annual average level of 14,200 mt/week. The decline in spot cargo arrivals led downstream buyers to actively pick up goods from warehouses.

Looking ahead to next week, with a nearby smelter still under maintenance and imported copper arrivals also limited, supply is expected to remain tight next week. On the demand side, affected by the relatively small price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap, many enterprises that use copper scrap shifted to purchasing copper cathode, significantly boosting demand for copper cathode. Therefore, demand is expected to continue exceeding supply next week, inventory will continue to decline, and spot premiums are expected to keep rebounding.

(The above information is based on market collection and the comprehensive assessment of the SMM research team. The information provided herein is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)