SMM News, March 27:
In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2604 contract fluctuated widely before rising sharply. It opened at 95,160 yuan/mt. After the opening, prices fluctuated between a low of 95,090 yuan/mt and 95,360 yuan/mt, then climbed rapidly to 95,560 yuan/mt, continued to rise, and touched a high of 95,790 yuan/mt, with the closing price at 95,780 yuan/mt. The inter-month Contango price spread ranged between 60 yuan/mt and 10 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for the front-month SHFE copper contract showed a loss of 170 yuan/mt to 110 yuan/mt.
Intraday, sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 2.81, up 0.07 MoM, while purchasing sentiment was 2.68, up 0.11 MoM. . At the start of morning trading, suppliers quoted standard-quality copper at discounts of 120 yuan/mt to 100 yuan/mt. Among them, Polish plate, ONSAN, Xiangguang, and Lufang were quoted at discounts of 110 yuan/mt to 100 yuan/mt; Jinchuan isa, OLYDA, and Jinchuan isa Yongchang were quoted at discounts of 120 yuan/mt; Jinguan, Jinxin, Jinfeng, and Jintun pc were quoted ex-works at discounts of 100 yuan/mt to 80 yuan/mt. High-quality copper such as Guixi and Jintun plate was quoted at discounts of 70 yuan/mt to 60 yuan/mt. Non-registered copper was quoted at discounts of 220 yuan/mt to 180 yuan/mt. Entering the second trading period, suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm emerged, and standard-quality copper prices saw little change; high-quality copper Guixi traded at discounts of 80 yuan/mt to 70 yuan/mt, and Jinchuan (plate) traded at discounts of 90 yuan/mt to 80 yuan/mt; registered SX-EW copper was scarce, with only some Myanmar cargoes circulating, quoted at a discount of 130 yuan/mt.
Looking ahead to next week, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to maintain a tug-of-war pattern. Supply side, some suppliers had already sold part of their imported copper cargoes intraday, including Onsan, SR-P, and Polish plate, while a large volume of imported copper is still expected to arrive next week, and the actual increase in supply remains to be seen. If copper prices continue to fluctuate rangebound within the current range, the increase in supply will weigh on spot premiums. Demand side, next week will usher in the stockpiling window ahead of the Qingming Festival, and downstream enterprises may have demand to restock in advance. Spot transactions are expected to improve, which may provide phased support to premiums. In addition, from the market structure perspective, the price spread between high-quality copper and standard-quality copper has remained relatively narrow, reflecting that current market trading is mainly driven by actual consumption demand, with brand premiums weakening and buyers paying more attention to price itself rather than brand differences. Overall, Shanghai spot copper against the 2604 contract is expected to remain at the current level next Monday.
