SHFE Tin Stopped Falling and Rebounded, Closing Up 2.94%, as Macro Headwinds and Bottom Support Pulled in Opposite Directions [SMM Daily Tin Commentary]

On March 24, 2026, SHFE and LME stabilized and fluctuated after a prolonged decline in the earlier period. The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 347,970 yuan/mt, up 2.94%; three-month LME tin was last reported at $43,950/mt, down 1.24%.

On the macro front, the US Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at the March FOMC meeting and raised inflation expectations. The dot plot showed there could be one more interest rate cut this year, but Powell struck a cautious tone, reinforcing hawkish pricing in the market. US Treasury yields and the US dollar continued to rise, and tight US dollar liquidity kept weighing on global risk appetite, putting pressure on US dollar-denominated nonferrous metals.

China side, economic data for January and February 2026 got off to a strong start: industrial value-added grew from 5.2% in December last year to 6.3% YoY, total retail sales rebounded from 0.9% to 2.8% YoY, and fixed-asset investment turned positive from -15.1% to 1.8% YoY, while declines in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investment all eased. During the Two Sessions, the policy side released positive signals, setting the core goal of “making every effort to stabilize the real estate market” for the property sector and promoting the industry’s high-quality development with precise and pragmatic measures; it also stressed that “intelligent manufacturing is an important manifestation of the AI era.” China’s manufacturing sector accounts for nearly one-third of the global total, and intelligent manufacturing is not only a key path for industrial upgrading but also an important lever for enhancing international competitiveness. The Chinese market was encouraged to strengthen the foundation of domestic demand through development, but under the current macro pressure, futures remained under pressure and in the doldrums.

Spot side, trading was relatively quiet today. After futures stabilized, downstream wait-and-see sentiment resurfaced, with weak purchase willingness. Inventory side, SHFE tin warrants continued to decline. Although inventory remained at a relatively high level, if the current pace of drawdown is maintained, continued destocking will provide some support for the price floor.

In the short term, futures are expected to maintain a sideways movement pattern. Under pressure from the macro environment, the tin price center may edge lower slightly, but a corrective rebound after the prolonged decline will tug at the price center. Going forward, close attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment, downstream procurement pace, and inventory digestion.