SMM Survey: Hot Metal Production Saw Notable Recovery amid Weaker Impact From Environmental Protection Restrictions

[Market Participants Became More Rational in Sentiment, and Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Prices May Fluctuate Rangebound Next Week] In terms of transactions, the procurement pace of end-use industries such as downstream transformers and power equipment slowed down, and purchase willingness remained cautious, with procurement mainly consisting of small-volume, as-needed restocking orders, while large-volume purchasing activity was scarce, resulting in relatively low actual market trading activity. In addition, resources from steel mills’ earlier directed orders arrived successively, and traders’ circulating inventory accumulated steadily. Some merchants offered slight price concessions to accelerate turnover and boost shipments, but the overall room for concessions remained limited and failed to effectively lift transactions.

This week, total rebar inventory stood at 8.3525 million mt, up 57,800 mt WoW, or 0.7% (previously +3.46%). Compared with the same period of the lunar calendar last year, it increased by 281,200 mt, or 3.48% (previously +4.58%).

Middle East tensions have sparked a massive steel trade "mismatch." Iran's blocked exports created a 2.3-million-ton billet vacuum in Southeast Asia, while the Red Sea crisis stalled China's flat steel shipments to the Gulf. Consequently, China and India are rapidly absorbing SEA's diverted billet orders. SMM projects that blocked flat steel returning to China's domestic market, combined with surging overseas billet demand, will accelerate the narrowing of the domestic HRC-rebar spread.