Under Macro Pressure, SHFE Tin Contracts Fell to 366,000, While Trading in the Spot Market Was Relatively Active [SMM Tin Midday Commentary]

At midday on March 18, 2026, the most-traded SHFE tin contract extended its downward trend, closing the morning session at 366,700 yuan/mt, down 3.45%. LME tin also weakened in tandem, closing overnight at $46,550/mt, down 0.64%.

US inflation data came in above expectations, and market expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts were pushed back significantly. The US dollar index surged above the 100 mark to a 10-month high, exerting broad pressure on US dollar-denominated base metals. Amid the transmission logic across the commodity complex, overall investor attention to the metals sector declined, with capital flowing into sectors such as chemicals, leaving tin prices under pressure.

Supply side, tin ore supply in Myanmar gradually recovered, while major enterprises in Indonesia had issued quotas and begun stable production and shipments, easing concerns over outside China supply disruptions. Demand side, although some orders followed through in industries such as electronics and PV, overall current end-user consumption fell short of expectations. Affected by export policies and constrained supply of other raw materials in downstream segments, whether overall demand can scale up still requires continued observation.

Yesterday, market transactions were relatively mediocre, with most traders concluding deals of around 10 mt and a few exceeding 20 mt. This morning, prices dipped to around 366,000 yuan, and market inquiry sentiment recovered somewhat. Transactions increased from yesterday, but overall buying still mainly consisted of small-volume follow-up on price dips. Short term, tin prices will remain dominated by the macro front, with close attention needed on developments from the US Fed policy meeting and the trend of the US dollar index. The core expected trading range for the most-traded SHFE tin contract is 360,000-390,000 yuan/mt, and the price center may gradually move lower.