Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,922.5/mt. In early trading, LME lead fell rapidly to a low of $1,913/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead fluctuated upward and touched a high of $1,932/mt, after which bears regained dominance and SHFE lead turned downward. Entering the European session, LME lead dropped sharply and then started to rebound with fluctuations, posting wide swings within the range of $1,921-1,931/mt. It finally closed at $1,926/mt, up $1/mt, or 0.05%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,635 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead edged up to a high of 16,685 yuan/mt, then pulled back under pressure to a low of 16,595 yuan/mt. Overall, SHFE lead showed a fluctuating trend with sideways movement at night, posting wide swings within the range of 16,620-16,685 yuan/mt from intraday to the close, and finally closed at 16,670 yuan/mt. It recorded a small bullish candlestick, up 70 yuan/mt, or 0.42%.
On the macro front:
1. “Fed Mouthpiece”: The US Fed tended to remain silent this week. 2. Trump lashed out: the US was considering withdrawing from NATO, Starmer was not Churchill, and Macron would soon step down. 3. Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, was killed in an attack. 4. Iran’s supreme leader rejected a peace proposal with the US, insisting on defeating the US and Israel and seeking compensation. 5. Iran attacked upstream oil and gas facilities in the UAE for the first time. 6. Ministry of Finance: China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026. 7. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) launched a new batch of major foreign-funded projects, with planned investment of $13.4 billion
Spot fundamentals:
Yesterday, SHFE lead bottomed out and rebounded, quickly recovering all of the previous day’s losses. Suppliers shipped in line with market conditions, and quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai still carried slight discounts. In addition, inventory of cargoes self-picked up from production site at primary lead smelters was further digested, and some suppliers held prices firm in shipments. Mainstream production areas were quoted at premiums of 25-100 yuan/mt ex-factory against the SMM #1 lead average price; secondary lead smelters showed relatively strong wait-and-see sentiment and offered few quotations, while secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt ex-factory against the SMM #1 lead average price. After downstream enterprises purchased on dips yesterday, their inquiry enthusiasm declined today, and only some downstream buyers continued purchasing as needed.
Inventory: As of March 17, LME lead inventory fell by 200 mt, or 0.07%, to 284,375 mt; as of March 16, SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions edged up again.
Today's Lead Price Forecast:
At present, inventory at primary lead smelters continues to decline, suppliers' quotations remain firm, and reluctance to sell is evident; losses at secondary lead enterprises have widened, with most producers waiting on the sidelines and holding back sales, and overall effective supply in the market has tightened somewhat. After downstream battery plants restocked at low price levels, the procurement pace slowed somewhat, and downstream demand remained weak. The overall pattern of weak supply and demand continued. Lead prices were expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term, and subsequent trends required close attention to geopolitical factors, changes in operating rates at secondary lead enterprises in mid-to-late March, and actual downstream procurement conditions.
![LME Lead Edged Up 0.05% Overnight at the Close; SHFE Lead Maintained a Fluctuating Consolidation Trend [SMM Lead Morning Brief]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/riosq20251217171722.jpg)
![Secondary Lead Prices Inverted Against Primary Lead Prices, Lead Market Fluctuated Amid a Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/xVUpr20251217171722.jpg)
