BHP Submits Chile Copper Ore Expansion Plan; LME Copper and SHFE Copper Both Closed Lower Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Wednesday, March 18, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,724.5/mt. In early trading, it fluctuated upward and touched a high of $12,829.5/mt, after which the center of copper prices moved straight downward to a low of $12,721/mt. It then fluctuated upward before pulling back and finally closed at $12,780/mt, down 1.07%. Trading volume reached 17,000 lots, and open interest stood at 293,000 lots, down 8,255 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long liquidation. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 99,120 yuan/mt. In early trading, it rose to 99,530 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward all the way to a low of 98,900 yuan/mt. Afterward, the center of copper prices moved higher and finally closed at 99,140 yuan/mt, down 0.92%. Trading volume reached 27,700 lots, and open interest stood at 177,000 lots, down 1,993 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long liquidation.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) On March 17 (Tuesday), BHP announced on its official website that it submitted the Escondida New Concentrator project to Chile’s Environmental Impact Assessment System on the 17th as part of its investment plan to support operations over the coming decades. The new beneficiation plant will involve an investment of $4.4-5.9 billion and is intended to replace the capacity of the long-serving Los Colorados beneficiation plant by adding annual capacity of 220,000-260,000 mt of copper. Los Colorados is about to reach the end of its service life and will then be dismantled. The new beneficiation plant is a core part of the investment plan. Its implementation will have a significant impact on supplier development and job creation during the construction phase. If environmental approval is obtained, the project will require a multi-year construction plan and is expected to begin first production in 2031-2032. The new beneficiation plant will enable Escondida to maintain its total ore processing capacity of 460,000 mt/day and keep production within the currently approved level.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of March 17, the SHFE copper 2604 contract showed a pattern of rising fluctuations followed by a pullback. It opened at 100,200 yuan/mt. After the opening, prices fluctuated between 100,100 yuan/mt and 100,280 yuan/mt, then rose to a high of 100,500 yuan/mt, before pulling back to 100,060 yuan/mt, with the closing price at 100,130 yuan/mt. The Contango price spread between futures contracts for the next-month contract ranged from 130 yuan/mt to 80 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for the SHFE copper front-month contract ranged from a loss of 50 yuan/mt to a profit of 10 yuan/mt. Intraday trading in the spot market was weak overall. Suppliers still showed willingness to hold prices firm, while downstream wait-and-see sentiment remained strong, and spot premiums edged down slightly from yesterday. As the Contango price spread between futures contracts for the next-month contract narrowed, suppliers’ willingness to ship to delivery warehouse weakened somewhat, putting pressure on spot premiums. Demand side, downstream maintained just-in-time procurement. Even after suppliers slightly lowered quotations, transactions remained sluggish, and current copper prices had limited appeal to end-users. Supply side, domestic copper and previously price-locked imported cargoes continued to arrive, while social inventory remained high. The outflow of warrants over the next two days may further pressure spot premiums. Meanwhile, signs remained that the import window may open, and expectations for follow-up inflows of ex-China cargoes increased, further intensifying supply-side pressure. Overall, under a pattern of both weak supply and demand, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain under pressure today, with the possibility of a slight widening.
(2) Guangdong: On March 17, Guangdong spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract was quoted at a premium of 30 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, down 20 yuan/mt from yesterday; a discount of 80 yuan/mt for standard-quality copper, down 70 yuan/mt from yesterday; and a discount of 140 yuan/mt for SX-EW copper, down 55 yuan/mt from yesterday. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 100,255 yuan/mt, up 1,300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 100,140 yuan/mt, up 1,290 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, market trading sentiment improved after the contract rollover. Attention should be paid to today’s inventory changes. If destocking continues, premiums are expected to keep rising.
(3) Imported copper: On March 17, the average warrant price rose $1/mt from the previous trading day to $47/mt (price range: $42-52/mt); the average B/L price rose $1/mt from the previous trading day to $46/mt (price range: $41-51/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) rose $4/mt from the previous trading day to $25/mt (price range: $19-31/mt), with quotations referring to cargoes arriving from late March to mid-April.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on March 17, the futures closing price was 100,130 yuan/mt, up 1,080 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premiums were -100 yuan/mt, down 210 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On March 17, copper scrap prices rose 700 yuan/mt MoM, the sales sentiment index for copper scrap rose to 2.41, and the purchase sentiment index rose to 2.48. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 689 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 585 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper prices pulled back rapidly in afternoon trading, and many suppliers of copper scrap worried that copper prices would continue to fall. To avoid unnecessary losses, they sold off the copper scrap purchased in recent days, while many copper rod enterprises also bought the dip. Overall, trading in the copper scrap market was active.
Prices: On the macro front, the US Fed tended to stay on hold this week, believing that recent market shocks carried two-way uncertainty. Geopolitically, Trump said he was not yet ready to end the conflict immediately, but said he would withdraw before long; Iran’s Supreme Leader firmly rejected the proposal for peace talks, insisting on retaliation and compensation claims. Meanwhile, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and the head of the Basij militia were confirmed dead, and Iran was urgently filling candidates for key job titles. Amid the combined impact of geopolitical tensions and demand concerns triggered by high LME inventory, copper prices were generally under pressure and bearish. Fundamentally, domestic supply was ample, while imported cargoes arrived one after another to add supply, leaving the overall supply side loose; on the demand side, the modest rise in copper prices suppressed downstream purchase willingness, and the market was mainly driven by restocking for rigid demand. Overall, copper prices were expected to fluctuate rangebound in the doldrums today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]