The Most-Traded Contract’s Center Rebounded Slightly, Market Transactions Softened After Downstream Enterprises Restocked [SMM Tin Midday Commentary]

On March 17, 2026, the most-traded SHFE tin 2604 contract fluctuated around 378,000 during the morning session, and the midday session closed at 380,420 yuan/mt, up 2.05%; LME tin closed at $48,250/mt overnight, up 0.92%. This round of decline was mainly driven by the resonance of multiple bearish factors: From a macro perspective, stronger-than-expected US inflation data significantly delayed expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, while the US dollar index broke firmly above the 100 mark to a 10-month high, exerting broad pressure on US dollar-denominated base metals.

Fundamentally, Myanmar's tin ore supply was recovering, easing the pattern of tight global tin ore supply, while smelters maintained relatively stable operating rates. End-use consumption in downstream electronics, PV, and other sectors fell short of expectations, and enterprises showed weak willingness to conduct large-scale restocking. In terms of market sentiment, earlier profit-taking positions were liquidated in a concentrated manner, speculative funds withdrew rapidly, and traders adjusted quotations in line with the market. When futures dipped into the 360,000-370,000 range yesterday, most downstream enterprises restocked in a concentrated manner, and the market was relatively active; today, futures moved in consolidation, the center rebounded, and trading turned lighter.

In the short term, tin prices are still expected to be dominated by the macro front, with close attention needed on developments from the US Fed policy meeting and the trend of the US dollar index. The core fluctuation range of the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to be 370,000-390,000 yuan/mt, with support at the key psychological level of 370,000 yuan/mt being particularly critical; if breached, prices may further fall toward around 360,000 yuan/mt. Operationally, investors are advised to strictly control positions, strengthen risk management, and participate in rebounds cautiously.