Macro and Fundamentals Resonated Negatively, the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Once Fell Below the 370,000-yuan Mark [SMM Tin Midday Commentary]

By midday on March 16, 2026, the tin market showed a marked fall, with both SHFE and LME coming under pressure simultaneously.

In the futures market, the most-traded SHFE tin 2604 contract closed at 370,730 yuan/mt at midday, down 3.86%; LME tin closed at $48,280/mt overnight, down 1.93%. In early trading today, SHFE tin opened lower and moved down further, briefly falling to 365,150 yuan/mt during the session, with bearish sentiment dominating the market. This round of declines was mainly driven by the combined impact of multiple bearish factors: from the macro perspective, hotter-than-expected US inflation data significantly delayed expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, while the US dollar index broke strongly above the 100 mark to a 10-month high, exerting broad pressure on US dollar-denominated base metals;

Fundamentals side, Myanmar's tin ore supply was recovering, easing the tight global tin ore supply situation, while downstream sectors such as electronics and PV were in the traditional demand off-season, with weak willingness among enterprises to restock and procurement mainly driven by just-in-time demand. Market sentiment side, earlier profit-taking positions were closed intensively, speculative funds exited rapidly, and traders quoted prices in line with the market, with overall transactions remaining sluggish.

In the short term, tin prices are still expected to be dominated by the macro front, and close attention should be paid to developments from the US Fed's interest rate meeting and the trend of the US dollar index. The core expected trading range for the most-traded SHFE tin contract is 370,000-390,000 yuan/mt, with support at the key round-number level of 370,000 yuan/mt being especially critical; if this level is breached, prices may fall further toward 360,000 yuan/mt. Operationally, investors are advised to strictly control positions, strengthen risk management, and participate in rebounds cautiously.