Iron ore prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term [SMM Brief Review]

Today, iron ore futures fluctuated in the doldrums, with the most-traded contract I2605 closing at 762.5 yuan/mt, down slightly by 0.07% from the previous trading day. Spot prices rose slightly by about 4 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in offering prices, with most prices negotiated based on actual orders. Steel mills mainly restocked based on rigid demand, and inquiries remained cautious. Overall market trading activity was moderate.
According to the latest SMM statistics this week, the daily average hot metal production from sampled blast furnaces recorded 2.386 million mt, up 15,800 mt WoW, mainly due to incremental contributions from blast furnaces that previously underwent maintenance gradually resuming production. Looking ahead, as the intensity of blast furnace maintenance marginally weakens, daily average hot metal production is expected to maintain a steady rebound trend, which will provide continuous rigid support for iron ore demand growth, marking a substantial improvement in fundamental demand.
However, given the dual pressure from high in-factory inventory and port inventory, it is expected to take some time for the demand increment to translate into price increases. Therefore, considering all factors, amid the interplay of recovering rigid demand and persistent inventory pressure, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate upward at lows in the short term, with the overall price center likely to experience a slight upward shift. [SMM Steel]