Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,974/mt, touched a high of $1,981.5/mt during the Asian session before fluctuating downward; it probed a low of $1,960.5/mt during the European session, then rose in late trading to close at $1,977.5/mt.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 16,660 yuan/mt, touched a low of 16,635 yuan/mt early in the session before fluctuating upward to a high of 16,750 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,705 yuan/mt, up 0.24%, forming a small bullish candlestick.
On the macro front:
CME Group: Plans to launch single-stock futures this summer. US Fed—①Hammack: Economic outlook is positive, inflation remains high, no urgent need for interest rate cuts this year. ②Logan: Adopts a "cautiously optimistic" stance on the effectiveness of current interest rate policy, more concerned about inflation. US December retail sales month-on-month recorded 0%, below the median forecast of 0.4%, previous value 0.60%. According to the EU-China Chamber of Commerce, the European Commission accepted Volkswagen's price commitments for China-made pure electric vehicles. China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued implementation opinions on accelerating the promotion and application of artificial intelligence in the bidding sector. Li Qiang: Reasonably develop rare earth resources, actively promote breakthroughs in key core technologies. The central bank released the China Monetary Policy Execution Report for Q4 2025: Continue to implement appropriately accommodative monetary policy.
:
Market circulation cargoes were limited in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, coupled with most logistics being suspended, suppliers' quoting enthusiasm significantly decreased, with a few quoting following the market, mainly cargoes self-picked up from production site. Quotations for mainstream origin primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site against the SMM #1 lead average price were at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt ex-works. Secondary lead side, smelters awaited the holiday, quotations were scarce, a few secondary refined lead quotations against the SMM #1 lead average price were around parity ex-works. Additionally, most downstream enterprises had halted production, some operating enterprises were also in the final stage, spot order procurement basically stopped, and transactions were rare in the spot market.
Inventory side: On February 10, LME lead inventory was flat from the previous day at 232,750 mt. As of February 9, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five areas rose to a five-month high.
Today's lead price forecast:
Enterprises across the lead industry chain successively entered the holiday period, trading activity significantly decreased. Most primary lead suppliers completed clearing inventory last week, spot order quotations were scarce; many secondary lead smelters were on holiday and reluctant to sell at low prices, most enterprises suspended quotations. Downstream enterprises generally entered the year-end final stage, stockpiling targets were completed, and inquiry willingness was low. Additionally, as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, logistics and transportation have tightened, and the spot market is experiencing light trading activity. Overall, the impact of fundamentals on lead price trends before the holiday has weakened, with attention turning to fluctuations in overseas markets that may affect lead prices.
Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.
