BoC Governor Warns of Recession Risk if Canada Loses US Trade Preferences Under USMCA

Published: Feb 13, 2026 17:41

Save

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem pointed out that Canada's economy is highly likely to fall into a recession if it loses preferential trade access to the US granted under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). However, he emphasized that, despite recent trade frictions, such a scenario is not considered in the Bank of Canada's baseline outlook—the central bank's baseline forecast still assumes that Canada will maintain its exempt status.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

Common.Time.minsAgo

SMM Analysis: Jan Aluminum Billet Output Slumps, Feb Production to Hit 4-Year Low

[SMM Analysis: Primary Aluminum Billets Operation in January Weaker Than Expectations, February Production May Hit a Nearly Four-Year Low] Domestic primary aluminum billets operation in January performed weaker than expectations. According to SMM data...

Common.Time.minsAgo

1 hour ago

Novelis Reports Q3 Results: Oswego Fire Reduces Shipments, Impacts Earnings

Novelis recently released its fiscal 2026 Q3 results, highlighting the impact of the fire at its Oswego plant. The production disruption at the Oswego plant is expected to reduce shipments by 72,000 mt. This resulted in a pre-tax negative impact of $54 million on adjusted EBITDA and net loss. The net loss was further affected by a pre-tax loss of $327 million related to the fire. Despite the decline in paired volume, net sales increased 3% YoY to $4.2 billion, primarily driven by higher average aluminum prices.

1 hour ago

Egypt Aluminum Invests €19M in Cold Rolling Line Upgrade with Italian Firm Mino

According to foreign media: Recently, Egypt Aluminum signed a contract with Italian aluminum rolling equipment manufacturer Mino to carry out upgrades. Egypt Aluminum has invested 19 million euros to upgrade its cold rolling production line. This is a step in Egypt Aluminum's ambitious development plan: to enhance competitiveness, support the national industry, and implement new high-value-added projects. The company signed a contract with Italian aluminum rolling equipment manufacturer Mino to implement the upgrades. The contract period is 27 months and will improve the efficiency of the cold rolling line, which is a key step to extending its service life and ensuring the required thickness and specifications for the planned foil plant.

1 hour ago