BoC Governor Warns of Recession Risk if Canada Loses US Trade Preferences Under USMCA

Published: Feb 13, 2026 17:41

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Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem pointed out that Canada's economy is highly likely to fall into a recession if it loses preferential trade access to the US granted under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). However, he emphasized that, despite recent trade frictions, such a scenario is not considered in the Bank of Canada's baseline outlook—the central bank's baseline forecast still assumes that Canada will maintain its exempt status.

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