The most-traded SHFE tin contract continued to fluctuate with low volume before the holiday, while AI sentiment recovery drove prices to hold up slightly stronger. [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On February 12, 2026, the most-traded SHFE tin contract maintained a fluctuating trend, closing at 392,660 yuan/mt, up 1.23%. On the LME, the three-month tin contract also rose, temporarily quoted at $49,925/mt, down 0.28%.

Looking back at recent tin price movements, changes in AI industry expectations have become a key sentiment amplifier. Since H2 2025, the rapid expansion of the artificial intelligence sector has infused tin with the narrative of a "computing metal," continuously strengthening long-term expectations for semiconductor solder demand and driving tin prices to break through highs. However, entering January 2026, although the absolute performance figures disclosed by several semiconductor and AI enterprises were moderate, they fell short of the ultra-high expectations generated by previous heavy investments. The gap between "strong expectations and weak performance" sparked market concerns about an AI bubble, becoming a significant driver accelerating the decline in tin prices, which were already in an adjustment cycle. Recently, however, representative companies in the tech sector have successively voiced their views, reiterating the long-term positive trend of AI computing demand, partially restoring market confidence. This marginal improvement in sentiment transmitted to the tin market, pushing futures to show a slightly stronger consolidation pattern in the pre-holiday thin trading environment. It should be noted, however, that the current rebound is more of a technical adjustment amid sentiment repair, lacking substantial fundamental support, and its sustainability remains to be seen.

On the spot side, as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, all segments of the industry chain have largely entered a lull period, with logistics basically stalled. According to the SMM survey, the vast majority of downstream solder enterprises have entered the holiday mode, suspending production activities. On the procurement front, as most companies completed phased stockpiling during the rapid price correction at the end of January, current purchase willingness is generally low. Although market transactions are extremely sluggish, spot suppliers' quotations remain at relatively high premium levels due to limited available spot resources. Against this backdrop, the futures market lacks verification and support from spot transactions, and price fluctuations more reflect short-term swings in capital sentiment.

As the Chinese New Year holiday nears, market participation will continue to decline, and price volatility is expected to gradually narrow pre-holiday. Subsequently, key focuses include changes in overseas macro policies, geopolitical developments during the holiday, and the pace of production resumptions and the release of restocking demand by downstream enterprises after the holiday.